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Retour à la moyenne dans les cours du change du mécanisme de change européen : 1987-1995

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  • Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte
  • Thierry Roncalli

Abstract

[fre] Retour à la moyenne dans les cours du change du mécanisme de change européen : 1987-1995 . par Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte et Thierry Roncalli . Cet article étudie l'effet de retour à la moyenne des cours quotidiens des monnaies du Mécanisme de Change Européen et du dollar par rapport au mark sur la période 1987-1995. La force de rappel semble varier au cours de cet intervalle. Cependant, elle est rarement significative. Notre étude n'apporte pas un soutien convaincant aux enseignements des modèles théoriques de zone cible. À l'exception du franc belge et du florin, la valeur d'attraction du change estimée diffère de la parité officielle. Concernant le dollar, les Accords Louvre paraissent avoir été remis en cause après le krach boursier d'octobre 1987. [eng] A Return to Average Rates in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism: 1987-1995 by Jean Sébastien Pentecôte and Thierry Roncalli . This paper studies the effect of the return to average daily rates for the European Exchange Rate Mechanism currencies and the dollar against the deutschemark over the 1987-1995 period. The error correction term appears to fluctuate over this interval. However, it is rarely significant. Our study does not conclusively uphold the findings of the theoretical target zone models. With the exception of the Belgian franc and the guilder, the estimated exchange rate appeal value differs from the official parity. As regards the dollar, the Louvre Agreements would appear to have been brought into question following the October 1987 stock exchange crash.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Thierry Roncalli, 1996. "Retour à la moyenne dans les cours du change du mécanisme de change européen : 1987-1995," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 189-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_123_2_5798
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1996.5798
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5798
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    Cited by:

    1. Marie Bessec, 2000. "Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1305, Econometric Society.
    2. BESSEC Marie, 2010. "The Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dynamics in the EMS: a Time-Varying Threshold Test," EcoMod2003 330700015, EcoMod.

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