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Anticipations stabilisatrices dans un système de serpent monétaire : théorie et application au système monétaire européen

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  • Laffargue Jean-pierre
  • Avouyi-dovi Sanvi

Abstract

[eng] target zones and stabilizing expectations : theory and application to the european monetary system. . A target zone system constrains member countries to keep their bilateral exchange rates inside fixed ban s. The theory of exchange rate under such a regime bas known major developments for the last four years.. Current exchange rate depends upon all the expected future values of its fondamental. People know that these values will be constrained by a target zone agreement. Thus current shocks will have quite a limited effect on the exchange rate, much smaller than under a pure floating exchange rate System. Exportations stabilize exchange rates, even when realignments of central parities may occur.The EMS reveal itself as having induced such stabilizing expectations. [fre] Anticipations stabilisatrices dans un système de serpent monétaire. Théorie et application au système monétaire européen. . Un système de serpent monétaire contraint les nations qui y adhérent à empêcher leurs parités bilatérales de sortir d'une bande de variation préétablie. La théorie de la détermination des taux de change sous un tel régime a connu un développement rapide au cours des quatre dernières années.. Le taux de change courant dépend de toutes les valeurs anticipées de son fondamental, et le public sait que celles-ci seront contraintes à chaque date par le système du serpent. Des perturbations courantes appréciables n'affecteront alors le taux de change que faiblement, et moins qu'en régime de changes flexibles pur. Cet effet stabilisateur des prévisions des agents continue à prévaloir en présence de l'éventualité d'un réalignement des parités centrales.. Le SME semble avoir généré de telles anticipations stabilisatrices.
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  • Laffargue Jean-pierre & Avouyi-dovi Sanvi, 1991. "Anticipations stabilisatrices dans un système de serpent monétaire : théorie et application au système monétaire européen," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9112, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:9112
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