IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prp/jattij/v14y2021i2p125-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Restart of Hospitality and Tourism: System Dynamics and Scenario-Based Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Petr Štumpf

    (Prague University of Economics and Business)

  • Jitka Mattyašovská

    (Prague University of Economics and Business)

  • Adriana Krištùfková

    (Prague University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

A tourism destination is defined as an open, complex, and adaptive system, in which numerous relations in the economic, social, and environmental spheres are generated. This paper aims to define a system dynamics model of tourism destination as a complex system and to identify future behaviour of the system after the restart of tourism in the post-COVID-19 era. The main methodological approaches were system dynamics and simulation modelling. The case of a complex tourism system in the South Bohemia Region, the Czech Republic, in the form of a Stocks and Flows Diagram (SFD) is presented in this paper, focusing on the business activities at this tourism destination. The simulation results show the future behaviours of the system in various scenarios and compare the development of several economic indicators. Three possible future scenarios of a restart of the hospitality and tourism industry are compared with the theoretical situation without COVID-19 disease. The proposed system dynamics model contributes to the current theory of tourism destination management systems and can be used practically by destination managers for destination planning and to formulate destination strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Štumpf & Jitka Mattyašovská & Adriana Krištùfková, 2021. "Restart of Hospitality and Tourism: System Dynamics and Scenario-Based Modelling," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 14(2), pages 125-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:prp:jattij:v:14:y:2021:i:2:p:125-136
    DOI: 10.26493/2335-4194.14.125-136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hippocampus.si/ISSN/2335-4194/14.125-136.pdf
    File Function: full text in English
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26493/2335-4194.14.125-136?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andergassen, Rainer & Candela, Guido & Figini, Paolo, 2013. "An economic model for tourism destinations: Product sophistication and price coordination," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 86-98.
    2. Tadeja Jere Jakulin, 2019. "Systems Approach to Cultural Tourism and Events," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 12(2), pages 185-191.
    3. Bonham, Carl & Gangnes, Byron & Zhou, Ting, 2009. "Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 531-549, July.
    4. Romy Greiner, 2010. "Improving the Net Benefits from Tourism for People Living in Remote Northern Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(7), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Lacitignola, D. & Petrosillo, I. & Cataldi, M. & Zurlini, G., 2007. "Modelling socio-ecological tourism-based systems for sustainability," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 191-204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rainer Andergassen & Guido Candela & Paolo Figini, 2017. "The management of tourism destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 49-65, February.
    2. E. M. Ekanayake & Mihalis Halkides & John R. Ledgerwood, 2012. "Inbound International Tourism To The United States: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Management and Marketing Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(3), pages 15-27.
    3. Konan, Denise Eby, 2011. "Limits to growth: Tourism and regional labor migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 473-481.
    4. Perez-Mujica, Luisa & Duncan, Roderick & Bossomaier, Terry, 2014. "Using agent-based models to design social marketing campaign," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 36-44.
    5. repec:hae:wpaper:2013-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Carl S. Bonham & Peter Fuleky & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels: The Case of Hawaii's Tourism Industry," Working Papers 201303, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    7. Divino, Jose Angelo & McAleer, Michael, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 846-854.
    8. Ulrich Gunter, 2021. "Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-36, November.
    9. Cao, Zheng & Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan, 2017. "Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Banos-González, Isabel & Martínez-Fernández, Julia & Esteve-Selma, Miguel Ángel, 2015. "Dynamic integration of sustainability indicators in insular socio-ecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 306(C), pages 130-144.
    11. Huihui Feng & Xingpeng Chen & Peter Heck & Hong Miao, 2014. "An Entropy-Perspective Study on the Sustainable Development Potential of Tourism Destination Ecosystem in Dunhuang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-27, December.
    12. Mesfin Bekele Gebbisa & Abdi Shukri Yasin & Zsuzsanna Bacsi, 2024. "Impacts of Weather Variability on the International Tourism Receipts—Evidence from Ethiopia (1995–2019)," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Dimmock, Kay & Musa, Ghazali, 2015. "Scuba Diving Tourism System: A framework for collaborative management and sustainability," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 52-58.
    14. Armand Viljoen & Andrea Saayman & Melville Saayman, 2019. "Determinants influencing inbound arrivals to Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 856-883, September.
    15. Andrea Saayman & Jacques de Klerk, 2019. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using multivariate singular spectrum analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 330-354, May.
    16. Carmen D. à lvarez-Albelo & José Alberto Martínez-González, 2024. "Coordination of complementary tourism supply through a destination card: The pursuit of profitability in the presence of a foreign tour operator," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(5), pages 1166-1188, August.
    17. Gorbuntsova, Tatiana & Dobson, Stephen & Palmer, Nicola, 2019. "Diverse geographies of power and spatial production: Tourism industry development in the Yamal Peninsula, Northern Siberia," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 67-79.
    18. Chenyu Lu & Wenlei Li & Min Pang & Bing Xue & Hong Miao, 2018. "Quantifying the Economy-Environment Interactions in Tourism: Case of Gansu Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
    19. Tolga Genç & José António Filipe, 2016. "A fuzzy MCDM approach for choosing a tourism destination in Portugal," International Journal of Business and Systems Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1), pages 23-44.
    20. Nicolas Marine & Cecilia Arnaiz-Schmitz & Cristina Herrero-Jáuregui & Manuel Rodrigo de la O Cabrera & David Escudero & María F. Schmitz, 2020. "Protected Landscapes in Spain: Reasons for Protection and Sustainability of Conservation Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-21, August.
    21. Chia-Wen Lee & Ching Li, 2019. "The Process of Constructing a Health Tourism Destination Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-11, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prp:jattij:v:14:y:2021:i:2:p:125-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alen Jezovnik (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://academica.turistica.si .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.