IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpol/v2024y2024i6id1444p896-922.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examining Country-specific and Global Factors of Inflation Dynamics: The Curious Case of Baltic States

Author

Listed:
  • Mihail Petkovski
  • Jordan Kjosevski
  • Aleksandar Stojkov
  • Katerina Bartasek Petkovska

Abstract

This article addresses the emergence of double-digit inflation in the Baltic states during 2022 and 2023, following decades of price stability. Utilizing monthly data spanning from January 2010 to February 2023, our study aims to comprehensively analyse the inflation dynamics in the Baltic context, considering both domestic and global factors. Through the application of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methodologies, we identify significant influences such as exchange rate fluctuations, food and energy price movements and geopolitical events, notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the determinants of inflation in the Baltic region, offering insights essential for informed policymaking aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities to future inflationary shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihail Petkovski & Jordan Kjosevski & Aleksandar Stojkov & Katerina Bartasek Petkovska, 2024. "Examining Country-specific and Global Factors of Inflation Dynamics: The Curious Case of Baltic States," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(6), pages 896-922.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2024:y:2024:i:6:id:1444:p:896-922
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.1444.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.1444.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.polek.1444?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Čaklovica Lejla & Efendic Adnan S., 2020. "Determinants of Inflation in Europe – A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 51-79, September.
    2. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A consistent test for conditional symmetry in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 225-258, July.
    3. Umar Bala & Lee Chin, 2018. "Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    4. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2013. "Do fiscal rules matter for growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 34-40, January.
    5. Valerie Mignon & Sandrine Lardic, 2003. "Fractional cointegration between nominal interest rates and inflation: A re-examination of the Fisher relationship in the G7 countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(14), pages 1-10.
    6. Parker, Miles, 2018. "How global is “global inflation”?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-197.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:prg:jnlpol:v:preprint:id:1444 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    3. Claude DIEBOLT & Jamel TRABELSI, 2009. "Human Capital and French Macroeconomic Growth in the Long Run," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 40, pages 901-917, May.
    4. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks for Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1181-1208, October.
    5. Su, Liangjun, 2006. "A simple test for multivariate conditional symmetry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 374-378, December.
    6. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine Jeff, 2003. "A Robust Entropy-Based Test for Asymmetry," Departmental Working Papers 0508, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    7. Masayuki Hirukawa & Mari Sakudo, 2016. "Testing Symmetry of Unknown Densities via Smoothing with the Generalized Gamma Kernels," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, June.
    8. Nour Mohamad Fayad, 2024. "The Causality Between Corruption and Economic Growth in MENA Countries: A Dynamic Panel-Data Analysis," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 14(1), pages 28-49.
    9. Woo, Chiew Eng & Kun, Sek Siok, 2019. "Examining Asymmetric Oil Price Exposure to Assets Return in Malaysia: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(3), pages 23-41.
    10. Miles Parker, 2018. "The Impact of Disasters on Inflation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 21-48, April.
    11. Ablam Estel APETI & Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Reforms : Fiscal Rules and Public Expenditure Efficiency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2985, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    12. Marcelo Fernandes & Eduardo Mendes & Olivier Scaillet, 2015. "Testing for symmetry and conditional symmetry using asymmetric kernels," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 67(4), pages 649-671, August.
    13. Ayad Hicham, 2021. "Oil Prices and the Algerian Exchange Rate: Is there any Difference with Hidden Co-Integration?," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 21(1), pages 1-17, June.
    14. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "International Inflation Spillovers: The Role of Different Shocks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 191-230, March.
    15. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.
    16. Siok Kun Sek, 2023. "A new look at asymmetric effect of oil price changes on inflation: Evidence from Malaysia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1524-1547, August.
    17. Valery V. Bezpalov & Sergey A. Lochan & Dmitry V. Fedyunin & Irina V. Polozhentseva & Tatiana V. Gorina, 2022. "Relationship between Complex Integration Indices and Inflation Indicators and Their Impact on the Development of Regional Cooperation between Countries to Reduce the Level of Inflationary Risks: Case ," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
    18. Costin Radu Boldea & Bogdan Ion Boldea & Tiberiu Iancu, 2023. "The Pandemic Waves’ Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, April.
    19. Escanciano, J. Carlos, 2010. "Asymptotic Distribution-Free Diagnostic Tests For Heteroskedastic Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 744-773, June.
    20. Arvian Triantoro & Muhammad Zaheer Akhtar & Shiraz Khan & Khalid Zaman & Haroon ur Rashid Khan & Abdul Wahab Pathath & Muhamad Amar Mahmad & Kamil Sertoglu, 2023. "Riding the Waves of Fluctuating Oil Prices: Decoding the Impact on Economic Growth," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 34-50, March.
    21. Liangjun Su & Sainan Jin, 2005. "A Bootstrap Test for Conditional Symmetry," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(2), pages 251-261, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Baltic states; country-specific; global factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2024:y:2024:i:6:id:1444:p:896-922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.