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Vliv ekonomické krize na úroveň plodnosti ve státech Evropské unie
[The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Fertility Levels in EU Member States]

Author

Listed:
  • Jiřina Kocourková
  • Anna Šťastná
  • Alena Černíková

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the economic crisis which commenced in 2008 on fertility levels across the EU, i.e., whether the onset of the crisis influenced the fertility trends and whether the various countries differed in terms of their response to the crisis. The relationship between the two economic indicators GDP per capita and unemployment rate and the total fertility rate as the dependent variable was explored employing panel regression models. Simultaneously, an investigation was conducted into which indicator better fits the modelling of the influence of macro-economic conditions of individual countries on the fertility levels. Data on 28 EU member states from the period 2001 to 2013 were included in the analysis. The results revealed that the onset of the economic crisis exerted a fundamental effect on fertility. In addition, it was found that the two economic indicators were interchangeable in terms of the effects exerted. In conclusion, it was determined that the findings support the supposition that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical in character.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiřina Kocourková & Anna Šťastná & Alena Černíková, 2019. "Vliv ekonomické krize na úroveň plodnosti ve státech Evropské unie [The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Fertility Levels in EU Member States]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(1), pages 82-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2019:y:2019:i:1:id:1230:p:82-104
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1230
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2017. "The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(51), pages 1549-1600.
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    5. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
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    7. Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(10), pages 263-294.
    8. Karel Neels & Zita Theunynck & Jonas Wood, 2013. "Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 58(1), pages 43-55, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic crisis; fertility; regression analysis; cluster analysis; GDP per capita; unem-ployment rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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