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Využitie skóringových modelov pri predikcii defaultu ekonomických subjektov v Slovenskej republike
[Applicability of Scoring Models in Firms' Default Prediction. The Case of Slovakia]

Author

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  • Matúš Mihalovič

Abstract

Bankruptcy prediction has long been regarded as a critical topic within the academic and banking community. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study in the Slovak Republic has attempted to develop a bankruptcy prediction model putting together statistical and artificial intelligence approaches performed on a such an amount of data. This paper seeks to fill this gap. Our aim is to develop a hybrid bankruptcy prediction model using a genetic algorithm in the process of training a neural network (GA-NN). The research data set comprises a balanced sample of both healthy and bankrupt firms operating in Slovakia in the period from 2014 to 2017. Financial information regarding a firm's financial situation are acquired from the Finstat database, which stores annual reports. For the purpose of comparing the classification accuracy of the proposed GA-NN model, two more models are constructed, namely BP-NN (back-propagation neural network model) as well as MDA (multiple discrimination model). The results gained by utilizing these models suggest the superiority of the developed GA-NN model to both BP-NN and MDA models in terms of prediction performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Matúš Mihalovič, 2018. "Využitie skóringových modelov pri predikcii defaultu ekonomických subjektov v Slovenskej republike [Applicability of Scoring Models in Firms' Default Prediction. The Case of Slovakia]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(6), pages 689-708.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2018:y:2018:i:6:id:1226:p:689-708
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1226
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    3. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bankruptcy prediction; genetic algorithms; hybrid classifier; neural networks; pre-diction performance; scoring model; GA-NN model; default; decision trees;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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