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Unemployment Hysteresis in the Czech Republic

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  • Jakub Bechný

Abstract

This paper analyses the unemployment hysteresis in the Czech Republic on data from 1999 to 2016. The hysteresis is modelled by allowing for the impact of cyclical unemployment on the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Models are estimated using the Bayesian approach and provide robust evidence in favour of the hysteresis. The estimates imply that in response to an increase in the cyclical unemployment of 1 percentage point, the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment increases by 0.18 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Bechný, 2019. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(5), pages 532-546.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2019:y:2019:i:5:id:709:p:532-546
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.709
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    1. Elena Rusticelli & David Turner & Maria Chiara Cavalleri, 2015. "Incorporating Anchored Inflation Expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the Derivation of OECD Measures of Equilibrium Unemployment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1231, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2021. "Testing hysteresis in unemployment using artificial network (ANN) unit root test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1947-1958.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hysteresis; NAIRU; Phillips curve; state-space models; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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