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Development of Life Expectancy in the Czech Republic in Years 1920-2010 with an Outlook to 2050

Author

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  • Markéta Arltová
  • Jitka Langhamrová
  • Jana Langhamrová

Abstract

At present the majority of advanced countries are dealing with the problem of the ageing of the population. The Czech Republic is no exception. Demographic ageing is caused by the fact that mortality is dropping, especially infant mortality, and this expectation of life at birth. At the same time the birth rate is declining and subsequently total fertility rate drops below the preservation level of simple reproduction, which means that there are less children and more persons in particular in the older and oldest age-groups. It is very important to realise that the changes in the level of mortality bring with them positive impacts in lengthening of life expectancy on the one hand, but on the other hand, there is significant demographic ageing of the population. In this contribution we would like to show how the life expectancy has developed in the Czech Republic in a historical context and how it might develop in the coming years. For professionals the application of the Lee-Carter method will certainly be interesting - this is a method commonly used in the world by demographers and actuaries for modelling the future development of mortality and it is also the basic method used for stochastic demographic projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Markéta Arltová & Jitka Langhamrová & Jana Langhamrová, 2013. "Development of Life Expectancy in the Czech Republic in Years 1920-2010 with an Outlook to 2050," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(1), pages 125-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:1:id:444:p:125-143
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.444
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Arthur Renshaw & Steven Haberman, 2003. "Lee–Carter mortality forecasting: a parallel generalized linear modelling approach for England and Wales mortality projections," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(1), pages 119-137, January.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life expectancy; ageing of population; Lee-Carter method; co-integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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