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Effects of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran: An intervention time series analysis

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  • Ali Hadianfar
  • Razieh Yousefi
  • Milad Delavary
  • Vahid Fakoor
  • Mohammad Taghi Shakeri
  • Martin Lavallière

Abstract

Background: Public health policies with varying degrees of restriction have been imposed around the world to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of the implementation of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran, using an intervention time series analysis. Methods: Daily data on COVID-19 cases registered between February 19 and May 2, 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO)’s website. Using an intervention time series modeling, the effect of two government policies on the number of confirmed cases were evaluated, namely the closing of schools and universities, and the implementation of social distancing measures. Furthermore, the effect of the Nowruz holidays as a non-intervention factor for the spread of COVID-19 was also analyzed. Results: The results showed that, after the implementation of the first intervention, i.e., the closing of universities and schools, no statistically significant change was found in the number of new confirmed cases. The Nowruz holidays was followed by a significant increase in new cases (1,872.20; 95% CI, 1,257.60 to 2,476.79; p

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Hadianfar & Razieh Yousefi & Milad Delavary & Vahid Fakoor & Mohammad Taghi Shakeri & Martin Lavallière, 2021. "Effects of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran: An intervention time series analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-11, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0256516
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256516
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fotios Petropoulos & Spyros Makridakis, 2020. "Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-8, March.
    2. Mark J Siedner & Guy Harling & Zahra Reynolds & Rebecca F Gilbert & Sebastien Haneuse & Atheendar S Venkataramani & Alexander C Tsai, 2020. "Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-12, August.
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    1. Gowokani Chijere Chirwa & Joe Maganga Zonda & Samantha Soyiyo Mosiwa & Jacob Mazalale, 2023. "Effect of government intervention in relation to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Malawi," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.

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