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Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study

Author

Listed:
  • Mark J Siedner
  • Guy Harling
  • Zahra Reynolds
  • Rebecca F Gilbert
  • Sebastien Haneuse
  • Atheendar S Venkataramani
  • Alexander C Tsai

Abstract

Background: Social distancing measures to address the US coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic may have notable health and social impacts. Methods and findings: We conducted a longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study to estimate the change in COVID-19 case growth before versus after implementation of statewide social distancing measures in the US. The primary exposure was time before (14 days prior to, and through 3 days after) versus after (beginning 4 days after, to up to 21 days after) implementation of the first statewide social distancing measures. Statewide restrictions on internal movement were examined as a secondary exposure. The primary outcome was the COVID-19 case growth rate. The secondary outcome was the COVID-19-attributed mortality growth rate. All states initiated social distancing measures between March 10 and March 25, 2020. The mean daily COVID-19 case growth rate decreased beginning 4 days after implementation of the first statewide social distancing measures, by 0.9% per day (95% CI −1.4% to −0.4%; P

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J Siedner & Guy Harling & Zahra Reynolds & Rebecca F Gilbert & Sebastien Haneuse & Atheendar S Venkataramani & Alexander C Tsai, 2020. "Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1003244
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003244
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Effect on Health

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    Cited by:

    1. Badruddoza, Syed & Amin, Modhurima Dey, 2023. "Impacts of Teaching Modality on U.S. COVID-19 Spread in Fall 2020 Semester," Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(1), January.
    2. Long Chu & R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Mary-Louise McLaws, 2023. "Effects of Closures and Openings on Public Health in the Time of COVID-19: A Cross-Country and Temporal Trend Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    3. Juyoung Song & Dal-Lae Jin & Tae Min Song & Sang Ho Lee, 2023. "Exploring Future Signals of COVID-19 and Response to Information Diffusion Using Social Media Big Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(9), pages 1-11, May.
    4. Matthew Spiegel & Heather Tookes, 2021. "Business Restrictions and COVID-19 Fatalities [The immediate effect of COVID-19 policies on social distancing behavior in the United States]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5266-5308.
    5. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality – II," Studies in Applied Economics 210, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    6. Ali Hadianfar & Razieh Yousefi & Milad Delavary & Vahid Fakoor & Mohammad Taghi Shakeri & Martin Lavallière, 2021. "Effects of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran: An intervention time series analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-11, August.
    7. Gearhart, Richard & Michieka, Nyakundi & Anders, Anne, 2023. "The effectiveness of COVID deaths to COVID policies: A robust conditional approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 376-394.
    8. Caixia Wang & Huijie Li, 2022. "Public Compliance Matters in Evidence-Based Public Health Policy: Evidence from Evaluating Social Distancing in the First Wave of COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-13, March.
    9. Tanmoy Bhowmik & Sudipta Dey Tirtha & Naveen Chandra Iraganaboina & Naveen Eluru, 2021. "A comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 transmission and mortality rates at the county level in the United States considering socio-demographics, health indicators, mobility trends and health care infras," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Charles Courtemanche & Joseph Garuccio & Anh Le & Joshua Pinkston & Aaron Yelowitz, 2021. "Chance elections, social distancing restrictions, and KENTUCKY’s early COVID-19 experience," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.

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