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Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data

Author

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  • Nathan J Hostetter
  • Nicholas J Lunn
  • Evan S Richardson
  • Eric V Regehr
  • Sarah J Converse

Abstract

Understanding the influence of individual attributes on demographic processes is a key objective of wildlife population studies. Capture-recapture and age data are commonly collected to investigate hypotheses about survival, reproduction, and viability. We present a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model that incorporates age and capture-recapture data to provide comprehensive information on population dynamics, including abundance, age-dependent survival, recruitment, age structure, and population growth rates. We applied our model to a multi-year capture-recapture study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada (2012–2018), where management and conservation require a detailed understanding of how polar bears respond to climate change and other factors. In simulation studies, the age-structured Jolly-Seber model improved precision of survival, recruitment, and annual abundance estimates relative to standard Jolly-Seber models that omit age information. Furthermore, incorporating age information improved precision of population growth rates, increased power to detect trends in abundance, and allowed direct estimation of age-dependent survival and changes in annual age structure. Our case study provided detailed evidence for senescence in polar bear survival. Median survival estimates were lower ( 0.95) for individuals aged 7–22 years, and subsequently declined to near zero for individuals >30 years. We also detected cascading effects of large recruitment classes on population age structure, which created major shifts in age structure when these classes entered the population and then again when they reached prime breeding ages (10–15 years old). Overall, age-structured Jolly-Seber models provide a flexible means to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations (e.g., via senescence, life expectancy, and lifetime reproductive success) while improving our ability to investigate population dynamics and forecast population changes from capture-recapture data.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan J Hostetter & Nicholas J Lunn & Evan S Richardson & Eric V Regehr & Sarah J Converse, 2021. "Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-19, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0252748
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252748
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shirley Pledger & Kenneth H. Pollock & James L. Norris, 2010. "Open Capture–Recapture Models with Heterogeneity: II. Jolly–Seber Model," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 883-890, September.
    2. Richard Glennie & David L. Borchers & Matthew Murchie & Bart J. Harmsen & Rebecca J. Foster, 2019. "Open population maximum likelihood spatial capture‐recapture," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1345-1355, December.
    3. Rachel S. McCrea & Byron J. T. Morgan & Diana J. Cole, 2013. "Age-dependent mixture models for recovery data on animals marked at unknown age," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 101-113, January.
    4. Peter Guttorp & Walter W. Piegorsch & B. J. Reich & B. Gardner, 2014. "A spatial capture‐recapture model for territorial species," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 630-637, December.
    5. Evan S Richardson & Corey Davis & Ian Stirling & Andrew E Derocher & Nicholas J Lunn & René M Malenfant & Colette St Mary, 2020. "Variance in lifetime reproductive success of male polar bears," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 31(5), pages 1224-1232.
    6. S. P. Brooks & E. A. Catchpole & B. J. T. Morgan & S. C. Barry, 2000. "On the Bayesian Analysis of Ring-Recovery Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 951-956, September.
    7. Evan S Richardson & Corey Davis & Ian Stirling & Andrew E Derocher & Nicholas J Lunn & René M Malenfant & Colette St MaryHandling Editor, 0. "Variance in lifetime reproductive success of male polar bears," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 31(5), pages 1224-1232.
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