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An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States

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  • Miguel Sánchez-Romero
  • Vanessa di Lego
  • Alexia Prskawetz
  • Bernardo L. Queiroz

Abstract

The number of COVID-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that combines estimated (1) infection fatality rates (IFR) using a Bayesian melding SEIR model with (2) reported case-fatality rates (CFR) in order to indirectly estimate the fraction of people ever infected (from the total population) and detected (from the ever infected). We apply the technique to the U.S. due to their remarkable regional diversity and because they count with almost a quarter of all global confirmed cases and deaths. We obtain that the IFR varies from 1.25% (0.39–2.16%, 90% CI) in Florida, the most aged population, to 0.69% in Utah (0.21–1.30%, 90% CI), the youngest population. By September 8, 2020, we estimate that at least five states have already a fraction of people ever infected between 10% and 20% (New Jersey, New York, Massachussets, Connecticut, and District of Columbia). The state with the highest estimated fraction of people ever infected is New Jersey with 17.3% (10.0, 55.8, 90% CI). Moreover, our results indicate that with a probability of 90 percent the fraction of detected people among the ever infected since the beginning of the epidemic has been less than 50% in 15 out of the 20 states analyzed in this paper. Our approach can be a valuable tool that complements seroprevalence studies and indicates how efficient have testing policies been since the beginning of the outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Vanessa di Lego & Alexia Prskawetz & Bernardo L. Queiroz, 2021. "An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with COVID-19: An application to the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0245845
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245845
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Theresa Kuchler & Dominic Russel & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with the Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook," NBER Working Papers 26990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Bernardo García-Carreras & Matt D. T. Hitchings & Michael A. Johansson & Matthew Biggerstaff & Rachel B. Slayton & Jessica M. Healy & Justin Lessler & Talia Quandelacy & Henrik Salje & Angkana T. Huan, 2023. "Accounting for assay performance when estimating the temporal dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the U.S," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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