IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0242676.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroscopic and microscopic perspectives for adoption of technologies in the USA

Author

Listed:
  • Alexsandro M Carvalho
  • Sebastián Gonçalves
  • Janaína Ruffoni
  • José Roberto Iglesias

Abstract

Adoption of a new technology depends on many factors. Marketing, advertising, social interactions, and personal convictions are relevant features when deciding to adopt, or not, a new technology. Thus, it is very important to determine the relative weight of these factors when introducing a new technology. Here we discuss an agent based model to investigate the behavior of agents exposed to advertising and social contacts. Agents may follow the social pressure, or maybe contrarians, acting against the majority, to decide if they adopt or not a new technology. First, we solve analytically the model that relies on the above quoted factors. Then, we compare the theoretical results with empirical data concerning the adoption of innovations by American households during the 20th century. The analysis of the diffusion dynamics process is done either for the whole period, or by periods based on the so-called technical-economic paradigms, according to Freeman and Perez. Three different periods are considered: before 1920, from 1920 to 1970, and after 1970. We study the evolution of the model parameters for each technical-economic period. Finally, by adjusting the key parameters we are able to collapse all the data into a universal curve that describes all the adoption processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexsandro M Carvalho & Sebastián Gonçalves & Janaína Ruffoni & José Roberto Iglesias, 2020. "Macroscopic and microscopic perspectives for adoption of technologies in the USA," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0242676
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242676
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0242676
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0242676&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0242676?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2004. "Innovation and Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 10212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pulkki-Brännström, Anni-Maria & Stoneman, Paul, 2013. "On the patterns and determinants of the global diffusion of new technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 1768-1779.
    3. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edouard Civel & Marc Baudry, 2018. "The Fate of Inventions. What can we learn from Bayesian learning in strategic options model of adoption ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-47, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Liu, Xueying & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "Get Ready for Take-Off: A Two-Stage Model of Aircraft Market Diffusion," FCN Working Papers 15/2019, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    3. dos Santos, L.L.C. & Canha, L.N. & Bernardon, D.P., 2018. "Projection of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in residential low voltage consumers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 384-401.
    4. Elad Gafni, 2005. "The Diffusion and Adoption of Advanced Technologies in Canada: An Overview of the Issues," CSLS Research Reports 2005-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    5. Arkadiusz Kijek & Tomasz Kijek, 2010. "Modelling of innovation diffusion," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 20(3-4), pages 53-68.
    6. Centre for the Study of Living Standards, 2005. "What Explains the Canada-US ICT Investment Intensity Gap?," CSLS Research Reports 2005-06, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    7. Kijek Tomasz, 2015. "Modelling Of Eco-innovation Diffusion: The EU Eco-label," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 65-79, March.
    8. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    9. Shari, Babajide Epe & Dioha, Michael O. & Abraham-Dukuma, Magnus C. & Sobanke, Victor O. & Emodi, Nnaemeka V., 2022. "Clean cooking energy transition in Nigeria: Policy implications for Developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 319-343.
    10. Cambier, Adrien & Chardy, Matthieu & Figueiredo, Rosa & Ouorou, Adam & Poss, Michael, 2022. "Optimizing subscriber migrations for a telecommunication operator in uncertain context," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 308-321.
    11. Tiruwork B. Tibebu & Eric Hittinger & Qing Miao & Eric Williams, 2024. "Adoption Model Choice Affects the Optimal Subsidy for Residential Solar," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Simon P. Anderson & André de Palma, 2012. "Competition for attention in the Information (overload) Age," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 43(1), pages 1-25, March.
    13. Van, Tien Linh Cao & Barthelmes, Lukas & Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Kagerbauer, Martin, 2021. "Addressing the gaps in market diffusion modeling of electrical vehicles: A case study from Germany for the integration of environmental policy measures," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S05/2021, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    14. Klingler, Anna-Lena & Luthander, Rasmus, 2018. "Market diffusion of residential PV and battery systems driven by self-consumption: A comparison of Sweden and Germany," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S18/2018, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    15. Edgardo Arturo Ayala Gaytán, 2009. "Social network externalities and price dispersion in online markets," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-28, November.
    16. Régis Chenavaz & Corina Paraschiv & Gabriel Turinici, 2017. "Dynamic Pricing of New Products in Competitive Markets: A Mean-Field Game Approach," Working Papers hal-01592958, HAL.
    17. White, Reilly & Marinakis, Yorgos & Islam, Nazrul & Walsh, Steven, 2020. "Is Bitcoin a currency, a technology-based product, or something else?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Shigeno, Hidenori & Matsuzaki, Taisuke & Ueki, Yasushi & Tsuji, Masatsugu, 2023. "The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Innovation Process of Small and Medium-sized Regional Firms," 32nd European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2023: Realising the digital decade in the European Union – Easier said than done? 278018, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    19. Sohn, So Young & Lim, Michael, 2008. "The effect of forecasting and information sharing in SCM for multi-generation products," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 276-287, April.
    20. Day Yang Liu & Wen Chun Tsai & Pei Leen Liu & Chung Yi Fang, 2021. "Determinants of sales revenue in innovation diffusion effects of Taiwan sports lottery during the FIFA World Cup 2018," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 43-58, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0242676. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.