IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0238621.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: An application to coastal Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Attila N Lázár
  • Helen Adams
  • W Neil Adger
  • Robert J Nicholls

Abstract

Resource-based livelihoods are uncertain and potentially unstable due to variability over time, including seasonal variation: this instability threatens marginalised populations who may fall into poverty. However, empirical understanding of trajectories of household well-being and poverty is limited. Here, we present a new household-level model of poverty dynamics based on agents and coping strategies–the Household Economy And Poverty trajectory (HEAP) model. HEAP is based on established economic and social insights into poverty dynamics, with a demonstration of the model calibrated with a qualitative and quantitative household survey in coastal Bangladesh. Economic activity in Bangladesh is highly dependent on natural resources; poverty is widespread; and there is high variability in ecosystem services at multiple temporal scales. The results show that long-term decreases in poverty are predicated more on the stability of, and returns from, livelihoods rather than their diversification. Access to natural resources and ecosystem service benefits are positively correlated with stable income and multidimensional well-being. Households that remain in poverty are those who experience high seasonality of income and are involved in small scale enterprises. Hence, seasonal variability in income places significant limits on natural resources providing routes out of poverty. Further, projected economic trends to 2030 lead to an increase in well-being and a reduction in poverty for most simulated household types.

Suggested Citation

  • Attila N Lázár & Helen Adams & W Neil Adger & Robert J Nicholls, 2020. "Modelling household well-being and poverty trajectories: An application to coastal Bangladesh," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0238621
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238621
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238621
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238621&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0238621?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mallick, Debdulal, 2012. "Microfinance and Moneylender Interest Rate: Evidence from Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1181-1189.
    2. Amanda Lenhardt & Andrew Shepherd, 2013. "What has happened to the poorest 50%?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 18413, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    3. Uddin, Md. Shams & de Ruyter van Steveninck, E. & Stuip, Mishka & Shah, Mohammad Aminur Rahman, 2013. "Economic valuation of provisioning and cultural services of a protected mangrove ecosystem: A case study on Sundarbans Reserve Forest, Bangladesh," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 88-93.
    4. Christopher B. Barrett & Teevrat Garg & Linden McBride, 2016. "Well-Being Dynamics and Poverty Traps," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 303-327, October.
    5. Nayeem Sultana & Md. Rayhan, 2012. "Coping strategies with floods in Bangladesh: an empirical study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1209-1218, November.
    6. Naschold, Felix, 2012. "“The Poor Stay Poor”: Household Asset Poverty Traps in Rural Semi-Arid India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 2033-2043.
    7. Blair, Harry, 2005. "Civil society and propoor initiatives in rural Bangladesh: finding a workable strategy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 921-936, June.
    8. Khandker, Shahidur R., 2012. "Seasonality of income and poverty in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 244-256.
    9. Syed Hamid & Syed Ahsan & Afroza Begum, 2014. "Disease-Specific Impoverishment Impact of Out-of-Pocket Payments for Health Care: Evidence from Rural Bangladesh," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 421-433, August.
    10. Hulme, David & Shepherd, Andrew, 2003. "Conceptualizing Chronic Poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 403-423, March.
    11. Frank Ellis, 1998. "Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-38.
    12. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
    13. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Maira Emy Reimão, 2020. "Seasonal Poverty and Seasonal Migration in Asia," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(1), pages 1-42, March.
    14. Schlüter, Maja & Baeza, Andres & Dressler, Gunnar & Frank, Karin & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Jager, Wander & Janssen, Marco A. & McAllister, Ryan R.J. & Müller, Birgit & Orach, Kirill & Schwarz, Nina & Wij, 2017. "A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 21-35.
    15. Agnes R. Quisumbing & Bob Baulch, 2013. "Assets and Poverty Traps in Rural Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 898-916, July.
    16. Blaikie, Piers & Cameron, John & Seddon, David, 2002. "Understanding 20 Years of Change in West-Central Nepal: Continuity and Change in Lives and Ideas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1255-1270, July.
    17. Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 25-53.
    18. Basu, Karna & Wong, Maisy, 2015. "Evaluating seasonal food storage and credit programs in east Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 200-216.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Mora‐Rivera & Isael Fierros‐González & Fernando García‐Mora, 2024. "Determinants of poverty among Indigenous people in Mexico's Guerrero Mountain Region," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(1), January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dylan Fitz & Shyam Gouri Suresh, 2021. "Poverty traps across levels of aggregation," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(4), pages 909-953, October.
    2. Günther Fink & B. Kelsey Jack & Felix Masiye, 2020. "Seasonal Liquidity, Rural Labor Markets, and Agricultural Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3351-3392, November.
    3. Janz, Teresa & Augsburg, Britta & Gassmann, Franziska & Nimeh, Zina, 2023. "Leaving no one behind: Urban poverty traps in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    4. Bachewe Fantu & Minten Bart & Seyoum Taffesse Alemayehu & Pauw Karl & Cameron Alethia & Genye Endaylalu Tirsit, 2020. "Farmers’ Grain Storage and Losses in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Berg Claudia & Emran M. Shahe, 2020. "Microfinance and Vulnerability to Seasonal Famine in a Rural Economy: Evidence from Monga in Bangladesh," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 1-36, July.
    6. Bartoš, Vojtěch, 2021. "Seasonal scarcity and sharing norms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 303-316.
    7. Kitsuki, Akinori & Sakurai, Takeshi, 2016. "Seasonal Hunger: Heterogenous Impacts of Seasonal Price Changes on Seasonal Consumption in Rural Zambia," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235524, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Gharad Bryan & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1671-1748, September.
    9. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1759 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Solomon Zena Walelign & Mariève Pouliot & Helle Overgaard Larsen & Carsten Smith-Hall, 2015. "A novel approach to dynamic livelihood clustering: Empirical evidence from Nepal," IFRO Working Paper 2015/09, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    11. Haider, Hamza, "undated". "Asset Management & Coping Strategies in Burkina Faso," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259956, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Soumaïla Gansonré & Ramatu M. Al‐Hassan & Idrissa M. Ouédraogo & George T. Kwadzo & Edward E. Onumah, 2023. "Sustainability and Wealth of Rural Households: Measurement and Inequality Analysis," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(1), pages 150-169, March.
    13. Swati Dutta & Lakshmi Kumar, 2013. "Poverty Dynamics in Rural India: An Asset-Based Approach," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 475-506, November.
    14. Arunachalam, Raj & Shenoy, Ajay, 2017. "Poverty traps, convergence, and the dynamics of household income," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 215-230.
    15. Gross, Jeremie & Guirkinger, Catherine & Platteau, Jean-Philippe, 2020. "Buy as you need: Nutrition and food storage imperfections," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Sungil Kwak & Stephen C. Smith, 2013. "Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 955-975, July.
    17. Agha Ali Akram & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2017. "Effects of Emigration on Rural Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 23929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ranjula Bali Swain & Maria S. Floro, 2010. "Reducing Vulnerability through Microfinance: Assessing the Impact of Self-Help Groups in India," Working Papers 2010-19, American University, Department of Economics.
    19. Hang, Yuan, 2017. "Is There a Poverty Trap of multiple Dynamic Equilibria? The Analysis on Data of Rural Fixed Observation Point from 2004 to 2012," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 257264, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Giesbert, Lena & Schindler, Kati, 2012. "Assets, Shocks, and Poverty Traps in Rural Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1594-1609.
    21. Morrow, Nathan & Borrell, James S. & Mock, Nancy B. & Büchi, Lucie & Gatto, Andrea & Lulekal, Ermias, 2023. "Measure of indigenous perennial staple crop, Ensete ventricosum, associated with positive food security outcomes in southern Ethiopian highlands," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0238621. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.