IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0238565.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Yevgeniy Goryakin
  • Sophie P Thiébaut
  • Sébastien Cortaredona
  • M Aliénor Lerouge
  • Michele Cecchini
  • Andrea B Feigl
  • Bruno Ventelou

Abstract

Background: Ageing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures. Methods: The new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP and WCP). Findings: The direct costs of NCDs in the EU 27 countries and the UK (in constant 2014 prices) will grow under all scenarios. Between 2014 and 2050, the overall healthcare spending is expected to increase by 0.8% annually under BAU. In the all the countries, 605 billion Euros can be saved by 2050 if BCP is realized compared to the BAU, while excess spending under the WCP is forecast to be around 350 billion. Interpretation: Although the savings realised under the BCP can be substantial, population ageing is a stronger driver of rising total healthcare expenditures in Europe compared to scenario-based changes in risk factor prevalence.

Suggested Citation

  • Yevgeniy Goryakin & Sophie P Thiébaut & Sébastien Cortaredona & M Aliénor Lerouge & Michele Cecchini & Andrea B Feigl & Bruno Ventelou, 2020. "Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0238565
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238565
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238565
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238565&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0238565?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manning, Willard G, et al, 1987. "Health Insurance and the Demand for Medical Care: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 251-277, June.
    2. Wilkinson, Richard G & Pickett, Kate E., 2006. "Income inequality and population health: A review and explanation of the evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(7), pages 1768-1784, April.
    3. Popkin, Barry M., 1999. "Urbanization, Lifestyle Changes and the Nutrition Transition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 1905-1916, November.
    4. Bartosz Przywara, 2010. "Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 417, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Goryakin, Yevgeniy & Lobstein, Tim & James, W. Philip T. & Suhrcke, Marc, 2015. "The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 67-76.
    6. Marion Devaux & Franco Sassi, 2015. "The Labour Market Impacts of Obesity, Smoking, Alcohol Use and Related Chronic Diseases," OECD Health Working Papers 86, OECD Publishing.
    7. Anthony Harris & Anurag Sharma, 2018. "Estimating the future health and aged care expenditure in Australia with changes in morbidity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-10, August.
    8. Franco Sassi, 2010. "Obesity and the Economics of Prevention," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14244.
    9. Marion Devaux & Aliénor Lerouge & Giovanna Giuffre & Susanne Giesecke & Sara Baiocco & Andrea Ricci & Francisco Reyes & David Cantarero & Bruno Ventelou & Michele Cecchini, 2020. "How will the main risk factors contribute to the burden of non-communicable diseases under different scenarios by 2050? A modelling study," Post-Print hal-02873165, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asiye Özcan & Nina Nijland & Victor E. A. Gerdes & Josef J. M. Bruers & Bruno G. Loos, 2023. "Willingness for Medical Screening in a Dental Setting—A Pilot Questionnaire Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(21), pages 1-12, October.
    2. Błażej Łyszczarz & Karolina Sowa, 2022. "Production losses due to mortality associated with modifiable health risk factors in Poland," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(1), pages 33-45, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiappini, Raphaël & Coupaud, Marine & Viaud, François, 2022. "Does attracting FDI affect population health? New evidence from a multi-dimensional measure of health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    2. Lisa Oberlander & Anne‐Célia Disdier & Fabrice Etilé, 2017. "Globalisation and national trends in nutrition and health: A grouped fixed‐effects approach to intercountry heterogeneity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(9), pages 1146-1161, September.
    3. Goryakin, Yevgeniy & Rocco, Lorenzo & Suhrcke, Marc, 2017. "The contribution of urbanization to non-communicable diseases: Evidence from 173 countries from 1980 to 2008," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 151-163.
    4. Debabrata Talukdar & Satheesh Seenivasan & Adrian J Cameron & Gary Sacks, 2020. "The association between national income and adult obesity prevalence: Empirical insights into temporal patterns and moderators of the association using 40 years of data across 147 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Wu, Wenqing & Zhu, Dongyang & Liu, Wenyi & Wu, Chia-Huei, 2022. "Empirical research on smart city construction and public health under information and communications technology," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Goryakin, Yevgeniy & Suhrcke, Marc, 2014. "Economic development, urbanization, technological change and overweight: What do we learn from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 109-127.
    7. Hugh Gravelle & Matt Sutton, 2009. "Income, relative income, and self‐reported health in Britain 1979–2000," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 125-145, February.
    8. Charles Courtemanche & James Marton & Benjamin Ukert & Aaron Yelowitz & Daniela Zapata, 2018. "Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access, Risky Health Behaviors, and Self‐Assessed Health," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 660-691, January.
    9. Pierre-Thomas Léger & Erin C. Strumpf, 2010. "Système de paiement des médecins : bref de politique," CIRANO Project Reports 2010rp-12, CIRANO.
    10. Nadja Frate & Brigitte Jenull & Robert Birnbacher, 2019. "Like Father, Like Son. Physical Activity, Dietary Intake, and Media Consumption in Pre-School-Aged Children," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-12, January.
    11. Tal Gross & Timothy J. Layton & Daniel Prinz, 2022. "The Liquidity Sensitivity of Healthcare Consumption: Evidence from Social Security Payments," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 175-190, June.
    12. Mendez Lopez, Ana & Loopstra, Rachel & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2017. "Is trade liberalisation a vector for the spread of sugar-sweetened beverages? A cross-national longitudinal analysis of 44 low- and middle-income countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 21-27.
    13. Rey, Sergio, 2015. "Bells in Space: The Spatial Dynamics of US Interpersonal and Interregional Income Inequality," MPRA Paper 69482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gómez, Miguel I. & Ricketts, Katie D., 2013. "Food value chain transformations in developing countries: Selected hypotheses on nutritional implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 139-150.
    15. Jonathan Gruber, 2008. "Covering the Uninsured in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Oshio, Takashi & Urakawa, Kunio, 2013. "The association between perceived income inequality and subjective well-being: Evidence from a social survey in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 579, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Dionne, Georges, 1998. "La mesure empirique des problèmes d’information," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 74(4), pages 585-606, décembre.
    18. Trottmann, Maria & Zweifel, Peter & Beck, Konstantin, 2012. "Supply-side and demand-side cost sharing in deregulated social health insurance: Which is more effective?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 231-242.
    19. Michael Geruso & Timothy J. Layton & Jacob Wallace, 2023. "What Difference Does a Health Plan Make? Evidence from Random Plan Assignment in Medicaid," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 341-379, July.
    20. Subir K. Chakrabarti & Srikant Devaraj & Pankaj C. Patel, 2021. "Minimum wage and restaurant hygiene violations: Evidence from Seattle," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 85-99, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0238565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.