IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0236856.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Skórka
  • Beata Grzywacz
  • Dawid Moroń
  • Magdalena Lenda

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has expanded rapidly throughout the world. Thus, it is important to understand how global factors linked with the functioning of the Anthropocene are responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak. We tested hypotheses that the number of COVID-19 cases, number of deaths and growth rate of recorded infections: (1) are positively associated with population density as well as (2) proportion of the human population living in urban areas as a proxies of interpersonal contact rate, (3) age of the population in a given country as an indication of that population’s susceptibility to COVID-19; (4) net migration rate and (5) number of tourists as proxies of infection pressure, and negatively associated with (5) gross domestic product which is a proxy of health care quality. Data at the country level were compiled from publicly available databases and analysed with gradient boosting regression trees after controlling for confounding factors (e.g. geographic location). We found a positive association between the number of COVID-19 cases in a given country and gross domestic product, number of tourists, and geographic longitude. The number of deaths was positively associated with gross domestic product, number of tourists in a country, and geographic longitude. The effects of gross domestic product and number of tourists were non-linear, with clear thresholds above which the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths increased rapidly. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was positively linked to the number of tourists and gross domestic product. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was negatively associated with the mean age of the population and geographic longitude. Growth was slower in less urbanised countries. This study demonstrates that the characteristics of the human population and high mobility, but not population density, may help explain the global spread of the virus. In addition, geography, possibly via climate, may play a role in the pandemic. The unexpected positive and strong association between gross domestic product and number of cases, deaths, and growth rate suggests that COVID-19 may be a new civilisation disease affecting rich economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Skórka & Beata Grzywacz & Dawid Moroń & Magdalena Lenda, 2020. "The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0236856
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236856
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236856
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236856&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0236856?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Satariano, W.A. & Guralnik, J.M. & Jackson, R.J. & Marottoli, R.A. & Phelan, E.A. & Prohaska, T.R., 2012. "Mobility and aging: New directions for public health action," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(8), pages 1508-1515.
    2. Magdalena Lenda & Piotr Skórka & Johannes M H Knops & Dawid Moroń & William J Sutherland & Karolina Kuszewska & Michał Woyciechowski, 2014. "Effect of the Internet Commerce on Dispersal Modes of Invasive Alien Species," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-7, June.
    3. Janssen, Fanny & Kunst, Anton E. & Mackenbach, Johan P., 2006. "Association between gross domestic product throughout the life course and old-age mortality across birth cohorts: Parallel analyses of seven European countries, 1950-1999," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 239-254, July.
    4. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Eyno Rots, 2020. "Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis," Working Papers 2015, Banco de España.
    5. Alexander Hanbo Li & Jelena Bradic, 2018. "Boosting in the Presence of Outliers: Adaptive Classification With Nonconvex Loss Functions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 660-674, April.
    6. Valentin Amrhein & Sander Greenland & Blake McShane, 2019. "Scientists rise up against statistical significance," Nature, Nature, vol. 567(7748), pages 305-307, March.
    7. Vanina Guernier & Michael E Hochberg & Jean-François Guégan, 2004. "Ecology Drives the Worldwide Distribution of Human Diseases," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(6), pages 1-1, June.
    8. Kate E. Jones & Nikkita G. Patel & Marc A. Levy & Adam Storeygard & Deborah Balk & John L. Gittleman & Peter Daszak, 2008. "Global trends in emerging infectious diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7181), pages 990-993, February.
    9. David Stuckler & Martin McKee & Shah Ebrahim & Sanjay Basu, 2012. "Manufacturing Epidemics: The Role of Global Producers in Increased Consumption of Unhealthy Commodities Including Processed Foods, Alcohol, and Tobacco," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-8, June.
    10. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Egger, Garry & Swinburn, Boyd & Amirul Islam, F.M., 2012. "Economic growth and obesity: An interesting relationship with world-wide implications," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 147-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Larrinaga, Carlos & Garcia-Torea, Nicolas, 2022. "An ecological critique of accounting: The circular economy and COVID-19," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Melissa Neuman & Ichiro Kawachi & Steven Gortmaker & SV Subramanian, 2014. "National Economic Development and Disparities in Body Mass Index: A Cross-Sectional Study of Data from 38 Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Serge Morand & Sathaporn Jittapalapong & Yupin Suputtamongkol & Mohd Tajuddin Abdullah & Tan Boon Huan, 2014. "Infectious Diseases and Their Outbreaks in Asia-Pacific: Biodiversity and Its Regulation Loss Matter," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-7, February.
    3. Amandine Gautier & Sébastien Gardon & Christophe Déprés, 2023. "The emergence of the Biodiversity/Health nexus: making biodiversity a health issue," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 27-46, March.
    4. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    5. Ivan Montiel & Junghoon Park & Bryan W. Husted & Andres Velez-Calle, 2022. "Tracing the connections between international business and communicable diseases," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(8), pages 1785-1804, October.
    6. Rosemary A. McFarlane & Adrian C. Sleigh & Anthony J. McMichael, 2013. "Land-Use Change and Emerging Infectious Disease on an Island Continent," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, June.
    7. Renata L. Muylaert & David A. Wilkinson & Tigga Kingston & Paolo D’Odorico & Maria Cristina Rulli & Nikolas Galli & Reju Sam John & Phillip Alviola & David T. S. Hayman, 2023. "Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Nikolett Orosz & Tünde Tóthné Tóth & Gyöngyi Vargáné Gyuró & Zsoltné Tibor Nábrádi & Klára Hegedűsné Sorosi & Zsuzsa Nagy & Éva Rigó & Ádám Kaposi & Gabriella Gömöri & Cornelia Melinda Adi Santoso & A, 2022. "Comparison of Length of Hospital Stay for Community-Acquired Infections Due to Enteric Pathogens, Influenza Viruses and Multidrug-Resistant Bacteria: A Cross-Sectional Study in Hungary," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2012. "What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger? The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden," Working Paper Series 911, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    10. Mia Papasideris & Scott T Leatherdale & Kate Battista & Peter A Hall, 2021. "An examination of the prospective association between physical activity and academic achievement in youth at the population level," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Diakonova, Marina & Molina, Luis & Mueller, Hannes & Pérez, Javier J. & Rauh, Christopher, 2024. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    12. Fabian Duarte & Srikanth Kadiyala & Samuel H. Masters & David Powell, 2017. "The Effect of the 2009 Influenza Pandemic on Absence from Work," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(12), pages 1682-1695, December.
    13. Surhan Cam & Serap Palaz, 2023. "Mutual interests management with a purposive approach: Evidence from the Turkish shipyards for an amorphous impact model between (subjective) well‐being and performance," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 40-70, January.
    14. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    15. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2014. "The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    16. Ceddia, M.G. & Bardsley, N.O. & Goodwin, R. & Holloway, G.J. & Nocella, G. & Stasi, A., 2013. "A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: Integrating economic and ecological aspects," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 124-131.
    17. Brada, Josef C. & Gajewski, Paweł & Kutan, Ali M., 2021. "Economic resiliency and recovery, lessons from the financial crisis for the COVID-19 pandemic: A regional perspective from Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Edward L. Glaeser, 2021. "Urban Resilience," NBER Working Papers 29261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Siddharth Sareen & Andrea Saltelli & Kjetil Rommetveit, 2020. "Ethics of quantification: illumination, obfuscation and performative legitimation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-5, December.
    20. Zhu Wang, 2022. "MM for penalized estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(1), pages 54-75, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0236856. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.