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Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh

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  • Md Abdul Kuddus
  • Michael T Meehan
  • Lisa J White
  • Emma S McBryde
  • Adeshina I Adekunle

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is the seventh leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. Although the National TB control program (NTP) of Bangladesh is implementing its nationwide TB control strategies, more specific and effective single or combination interventions are needed to control drug-susceptible (DS) and multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB. In this study, we developed a two strain TB mathematical model with amplification and fit it to the Bangladesh TB data to understand the transmission dynamics of DS and MDR TB. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify important parameters. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of varying combinations of four basic control strategies including distancing, latent case finding, case holding and active case finding, all within the optimal control framework. From our fitting, the model with different transmission rates between DS and MDR TB best captured the Bangladesh TB reported case counts. The estimated basic reproduction number for DS TB was 1.14 and for MDR TB was 0.54, with an amplification rate of 0.011 per year. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the transmission rates for both DS and MDR TB had the largest influence on prevalence. To reduce the burden of TB (both DS and MDR), our finding suggested that a quadruple control strategy that combines distancing control, latent case finding, case holding and active case finding is the most cost-effective. Alternative strategies can be adopted to curb TB depending on availability of resources and policy makers’ decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Abdul Kuddus & Michael T Meehan & Lisa J White & Emma S McBryde & Adeshina I Adekunle, 2020. "Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0236112
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ellen Brooks-Pollock & Ted Cohen & Megan Murray, 2010. "The Impact of Realistic Age Structure in Simple Models of Tuberculosis Transmission," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(1), pages 1-6, January.
    2. Yang, Yali & Li, Jianquan & Ma, Zhien & Liu, Luju, 2010. "Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 79-85.
    3. Ullah, Saif & Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Farooq, Muhammad & Gul, Taza, 2019. "Modeling and analysis of Tuberculosis (TB) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 181-199.
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    1. Kuddus, Md Abdul & McBryde, Emma S. & Adekunle, Adeshina I. & White, Lisa J. & Meehan, Michael T., 2021. "Mathematical analysis of a two-strain disease model with amplification," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Kuddus, Md Abdul & McBryde, Emma S. & Adekunle, Adeshina I. & Meehan, Michael T., 2022. "Analysis and simulation of a two-strain disease model with nonlinear incidence," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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