IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0234213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence-based investment selection: Prioritizing agricultural development investments under climatic and socio-political risk using Bayesian networks

Author

Listed:
  • Barbaros Yet
  • Christine Lamanna
  • Keith D Shepherd
  • Todd S Rosenstock

Abstract

Agricultural development projects have a poor track record of success mainly due to risks and uncertainty involved in implementation. Cost-benefit analysis can help allocate resources more effectively, but scarcity of data and high uncertainty makes it difficult to use standard approaches. Bayesian Networks (BN) offer a suitable modelling technology for this domain as they can combine expert knowledge and data. This paper proposes a systematic methodology for creating a general BN model for evaluating agricultural development projects. Our approach adapts the BN model to specific projects by using systematic review of published evidence and relevant data repositories under the guidance of domain experts. We evaluate a large-scale agricultural investment in Africa to provide a proof of concept for this approach. The BN model provides decision support for project evaluation by predicting the value—measured as net present value and return on investment—of the project under different risk scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbaros Yet & Christine Lamanna & Keith D Shepherd & Todd S Rosenstock, 2020. "Evidence-based investment selection: Prioritizing agricultural development investments under climatic and socio-political risk using Bayesian networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0234213
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0234213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0234213
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0234213&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0234213?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Hallegatte & Julie Rozenberg, 2017. "Climate change through a poverty lens," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 250-256, April.
    2. Raggi, Meri & Sardonini, Laura & Viaggi, Davide, 2010. "Bayesian networks as a tool to assess the multiple effects of agricultural policies in rural areas," 118th Seminar, August 25-27, 2010, Ljubljana, Slovenia 94911, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. John Merrifield, 1997. "Sensitivity Analysis In Benefit Cost Analysis: A Key To Increased Use And Acceptance," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(3), pages 82-92, July.
    4. Keith Shepherd & Douglas Hubbard & Norman Fenton & Karl Claxton & Eike Luedeling & Jan de Leeuw, 2015. "Policy: Development goals should enable decision-making," Nature, Nature, vol. 523(7559), pages 152-154, July.
    5. World Bank, 2010. "Cost-Benefit Analysis in World Bank Projects," World Bank Publications - Reports 10481, The World Bank Group.
    6. Florin, Madeleine J. & van Ittersum, Martin K. & van de Ven, Gerrie W.J., 2013. "Family farmers and biodiesel production: Systems thinking and multi-level decisions in Northern Minas Gerais, Brazil," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 81-95.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Min Cui & Jizhou Zhang & Xianli Xia, 2022. "The Relationship between Child Rearing Burden and Farmers’ Adoption of Climate Adaptive Technology: Taking Water-Saving Irrigation Technology as an Example," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Leslie Lipper & Jyotsna Puri & Romina Cavatassi & Nancy McCarthy, 2022. "How does climate change affect the evidence we need for agricultural development?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(6), pages 911-923, November.
    3. Lotte Yanore & Jaap Sok & Alfons Oude Lansink, 2024. "Do Dutch farmers invest in expansion despite increased policy uncertainty? A participatory Bayesian network approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 93-115, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denizer, Cevdet & Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Good countries or good projects? Macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 288-302.
    2. Rojas, Gonzalo & Fernandez, Eduardo & Whitney, Cory & Luedeling, Eike & Cuneo, Italo F., 2021. "Adapting sweet cherry orchards to extreme weather events – Decision Analysis in support of farmers' investments in Central Chile," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    3. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    4. Jithitikulchai, Theepakorn, 2023. "The effect of climate change and agricultural diversification on the total value of agricultural output of farm households in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(2), October.
    5. Frate, Claudio Albuquerque & Brannstrom, Christian, 2017. "Stakeholder subjectivities regarding barriers and drivers to the introduction of utility-scale solar photovoltaic power in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 346-352.
    6. Irene Monasterolo & Monica Billio & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "The importance of compound risk in the nexus of COVID-19, climate change and finance," Working Papers 2020:15, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Susana Ferreira, 2024. "Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation Policies," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 207-231, October.
    8. Spash, Clive L. & Vatn, Arild, 2006. "Transferring environmental value estimates: Issues and alternatives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 379-388, December.
    9. Maamoun, Nada & Grünhagen, Caroline & Ward, Hauke & Kornek, Ulrike, 2024. "A Seat at the Table: Distributional impacts of food-price increases due to climate change," EconStor Preprints 281165, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Martin Ravallion, 2016. "The World Bank: Why It Is Still Needed and Why It Still Disappoints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 77-94, Winter.
    11. Barbora Sedova & Matthias Kalkuhl & Robert Mendelsohn, 2020. "Distributional Impacts of Weather and Climate in Rural India," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-44, April.
    12. Moyer, Jonathan D. & Hedden, Steve, 2020. "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    13. Frits Bos & Thomas van der Pol & Gerbert Romijn, 2018. "Should CBA’s include a correction for the marginal excess burden of taxation?," CPB Discussion Paper 370.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Stephane Hallegatte & Trong‐Anh Trinh, 2024. "Does global warming worsen poverty and inequality? An updated review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 1873-1905, December.
    15. Gafar ALMHAMAD & Vilmos LAKATOS & Ali ALKERDI & Lama ALKHATIB, 2022. "Social Entrepreneurship Research In The Middle East (Systematic Review)," CrossCultural Management Journal, Fundația Română pentru Inteligența Afacerii, Editorial Department, issue 1, pages 7-15, July.
    16. Kilby, Christopher, 2015. "Assessing the impact of World Bank preparation on project outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 111-123.
    17. Upendra Bom & John Tiefenbacher & Shashidhar Belbase, 2023. "Individual and community perceptions of climate change in Lower Mustang, Nepal," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 5997-6031, July.
    18. Jones, Andrew & Nock, Destenie & Samaras, Constantine & Qiu, Yueming (Lucy) & Xing, Bo, 2023. "Climate change impacts on future residential electricity consumption and energy burden: A case study in Phoenix, Arizona," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    19. Edouard Pignède, 2025. "Who carries the burden of climate change? Heterogeneous impact of droughts in sub‐Saharan Africa [Qui porte le fardeau du changement climatique ? Impact hétérogène des sécheresses en Afrique subsah," Post-Print hal-04886547, HAL.
    20. Chopin, Pierre & Blazy, Jean-Marc & Guindé, Loïc & Wery, Jacques & Doré, Thierry, 2017. "A framework for designing multi-functional agricultural landscapes: Application to Guadeloupe Island," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 316-329.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0234213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.