IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0230568.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulating system dynamics of the HIV care continuum to achieve treatment as prevention

Author

Listed:
  • Margaret R Weeks
  • David W Lounsbury
  • Jianghong Li
  • Gary Hirsch
  • Marcie Berman
  • Helena D Green
  • Lucy Rohena
  • Rosely Gonzalez
  • Jairo M Montezuma-Rusca
  • Seja Jackson

Abstract

The continuing HIV pandemic calls for broad, multi-sectoral responses that foster community control of local prevention and care services, with the goal of leveraging high quality treatment as a means of reducing HIV incidence. Service system improvements require stakeholder input from across the care continuum to identify gaps and to inform strategic plans that improve HIV service integration and delivery. System dynamics modeling offers a participatory research approach through which stakeholders learn about system complexity and about ways to achieve sustainable system-level improvements. Via an intensive group model building process with a task force of community stakeholders with diverse roles and responsibilities for HIV service implementation, delivery and surveillance, we designed and validated a multi-module system dynamics model of the HIV care continuum, in relation to local prevention and care service capacities. Multiple sources of data were used to calibrate the model for a three-county catchment area of central Connecticut. We feature a core module of the model for the purpose of illustrating its utility in understanding the dynamics of treatment as prevention at the community level. We also describe the methods used to validate the model and support its underlying assumptions to improve confidence in its use by stakeholders for systems understanding and decision making. The model’s generalizability and implications of using it for future community-driven strategic planning and implementation efforts are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret R Weeks & David W Lounsbury & Jianghong Li & Gary Hirsch & Marcie Berman & Helena D Green & Lucy Rohena & Rosely Gonzalez & Jairo M Montezuma-Rusca & Seja Jackson, 2020. "Simulating system dynamics of the HIV care continuum to achieve treatment as prevention," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0230568
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0230568
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0230568&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0230568?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barlas, Yaman, 1989. "Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 59-87, September.
    2. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan & Seong, Baek Seo, 2010. "How to do structural validity of a system dynamics type simulation model: The case of an energy policy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2216-2224, May.
    3. Sterman, J.D., 2006. "Learning from evidence in a complex world," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(3), pages 505-514.
    4. Krystyna A. Stave, 2002. "Using system dynamics to improve public participation in environmental decisions," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 18(2), pages 139-167, June.
    5. Sarah Kok & Alexander Rutherford & Reka Gustafson & Rolando Barrios & Julio Montaner & Krisztina Vasarhelyi, 2015. "Optimizing an HIV testing program using a system dynamics model of the continuum of care," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 334-362, September.
    6. Oliva, Rogelio, 2003. "Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 552-568, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abada, Ibrahim & Briat, Vincent & Massol, Olivier, 2013. "Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 240-251.
    2. Chang, Angela Y. & Ogbuoji, Osondu & Atun, Rifat & Verguet, Stéphane, 2017. "Dynamic modeling approaches to characterize the functioning of health systems: A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 160-167.
    3. Wang, Kung-Jeng & Lee, Kun-Shan & Liao, Jia-Hong, 2019. "Technology cooperation modeling of multiple profit-centered business units: A system dynamics framework," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 195-220.
    4. Torres, Juan Pablo & Barrera, Jose Ignacio & Kunc, Martin & Charters, Steve, 2021. "The dynamics of wine tourism adoption in Chile," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 474-485.
    5. Matthew, George Jr. & Nuttall, William J & Mestel, Ben & Dooley, Laurence S, 2017. "A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 121-131.
    6. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    7. Ye, Rui-Ke & Gao, Zhuang-Fei & Fang, Kai & Liu, Kang-Li & Chen, Jia-Wei, 2021. "Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: A system dynamics analysis of China's NEVs in the post-subsidy era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2015. "Independent power (or pollution) producers? Electricity reforms and IPPs in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 240-251.
    9. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2014. "Green power in Ontario: A dynamic model-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 859-870.
    10. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2012. "The impact of demand side management strategies in the penetration of renewable electricity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 128-137.
    11. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2020. "Benefits from energy policy synchronisation of Brazil’s North-Northeast interconnection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 427-437.
    12. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2019. "Assessing the effect of transmission constraints on wind power expansion in northeast Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Hassmiller Lich, Kristen & Urban, Jennifer Brown & Frerichs, Leah & Dave, Gaurav, 2017. "Extending systems thinking in planning and evaluation using group concept mapping and system dynamics to tackle complex problems," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 254-264.
    14. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    15. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2013. "Understanding the dynamics of electricity generation capacity in Canada: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 285-294.
    16. Özge Karanfil & Yaman Barlas, 2008. "A Dynamic Simulator for the Management of Disorders of the Body Water Homeostasis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 1474-1492, December.
    17. Baur, Ivo & Binder, Claudia R., 2015. "Modeling and assessing scenarios of common property pastures management in Switzerland," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 292-305.
    18. Turner, Benjamin L., 2020. "Model laboratories: A quick-start guide for design of simulation experiments for dynamic systems models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 434(C).
    19. Benjamin L. Turner & Vincent Tidwell & Alexander Fernald & José A. Rivera & Sylvia Rodriguez & Steven Guldan & Carlos Ochoa & Brian Hurd & Kenneth Boykin & Andres Cibils, 2016. "Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-30, October.
    20. Alberto Sardi & Enrico Sorano, 2019. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-22, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0230568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.