IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0224144.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dispersion of Legionella bacteria in atmosphere: A practical source location estimation method

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Dyke
  • Iain Barrass
  • Kevin Pollock
  • Ian M Hall

Abstract

Legionnaires’ disease, a form of pneumonia which can be fatal, is transmitted via the inhalation of water droplets containing Legionella bacteria. These droplets can be dispersed in the atmosphere several kilometers from their source. The most common such sources are contaminated water within cooling towers and other air-conditioning systems but other sources such as ornamental fountains and spa pools have also caused outbreaks of the disease in the past. There is an obvious need to locate and eliminate any such sources as quickly as possible. Here a maximum likelihood model estimating the source of an outbreak from case location data has been developed and implemented. Unlike previous models, the average dose exposure sub-model is formulated using a atmospheric dispersion model. How the uncertainty in inferred parameters can be estimated is discussed. The model is applied to the 2012 Edinburgh Legionnaires’ disease outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Dyke & Iain Barrass & Kevin Pollock & Ian M Hall, 2019. "Dispersion of Legionella bacteria in atmosphere: A practical source location estimation method," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-14, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0224144
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0224144
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0224144&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0224144?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Legrand & Joseph R Egan & Ian M Hall & Simon Cauchemez & Steve Leach & Neil M Ferguson, 2009. "Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, April.
    2. T. W. Armstrong & C. N. Haas, 2007. "A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Legionnaires' Disease: Animal Model Selection and Dose‐Response Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(6), pages 1581-1596, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toru Watanabe & Timothy A. Bartrand & Mark H. Weir & Tatsuo Omura & Charles N. Haas, 2010. "Development of a Dose‐Response Model for SARS Coronavirus," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(7), pages 1129-1138, July.
    2. Agung Kusumawardhana & Ljiljana Zlatanovic & Arne Bosch & Jan Peter van der Hoek, 2021. "Microbiological Health Risk Assessment of Water Conservation Strategies: A Case Study in Amsterdam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Gin Nam Sze‐To & Christopher Y. H. Chao, 2011. "Use of Risk Assessment and Likelihood Estimation to Analyze Spatial Distribution Pattern of Respiratory Infection Cases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 351-369, March.
    4. Bidya Prasad & Kerry A. Hamilton & Charles N. Haas, 2017. "Incorporating Time‐Dose‐Response into Legionella Outbreak Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 291-304, February.
    5. Richard Bentham & Harriet Whiley, 2018. "Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Opportunist Waterborne Infections–Are There Too Many Gaps to Fill?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-11, June.
    6. Siming You & Man Pun Wan, 2015. "A Risk Assessment Scheme of Infection Transmission Indoors Incorporating the Impact of Resuspension," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(8), pages 1488-1502, August.
    7. Christopher Leleu & Jean Menotti & Pascale Meneceur & Firas Choukri & Annie Sulahian & Yves Jean‐François Garin & Jean‐Baptiste Denis & Francis Derouin, 2013. "Bayesian Development of a Dose‐Response Model for Aspergillus fumigatus and Invasive Aspergillosis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(8), pages 1441-1453, August.
    8. Ileana Federigi & Osvalda De Giglio & Giusy Diella & Francesco Triggiano & Francesca Apollonio & Marilena D’Ambrosio & Lorenzo Cioni & Marco Verani & Maria Teresa Montagna & Annalaura Carducci, 2022. "Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Applied to Legionella Contamination on Long-Distance Public Transport," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-12, February.
    9. Sarah C. Taft & Stephanie A. Hines, 2012. "Benchmark Dose Analysis for Bacillus anthracis Inhalation Exposures in the Nonhuman Primate," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1750-1768, October.
    10. Martijn Bouwknegt & Jack F. Schijven & Johanna A.C. Schalk & Ana Maria de Roda Husman, 2013. "Quantitative Risk Estimation for a Legionella pneumophila Infection Due to Whirlpool Use," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1228-1236, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0224144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.