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Do speed cameras reduce road traffic collisions?

Author

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  • Daniel J Graham
  • Cian Naik
  • Emma J McCoy
  • Haojie Li

Abstract

This paper quantifies the effect of speed cameras on road traffic collisions using an approximate Bayesian doubly-robust (DR) causal inference estimation method. Previous empirical work on this topic, which shows a diverse range of estimated effects, is based largely on outcome regression (OR) models using the Empirical Bayes approach or on simple before and after comparisons. Issues of causality and confounding have received little formal attention. A causal DR approach combines propensity score (PS) and OR models to give an average treatment effect (ATE) estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal under correct specification of either of the two component models. We develop this approach within a novel approximate Bayesian framework to derive posterior predictive distributions for the ATE of speed cameras on road traffic collisions. Our results for England indicate significant reductions in the number of collisions at speed cameras sites (mean ATE = -15%). Our proposed method offers a promising approach for evaluation of transport safety interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel J Graham & Cian Naik & Emma J McCoy & Haojie Li, 2019. "Do speed cameras reduce road traffic collisions?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0221267
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0221267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. Muliere & P. Secchi, 1996. "Bayesian nonparametric predictive inference and bootstrap techniques," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 48(4), pages 663-673, December.
    2. Heejung Bang & James M. Robins, 2005. "Doubly Robust Estimation in Missing Data and Causal Inference Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 962-973, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. France Desjardins & Martin Lavallière, 2023. "Evaluation of a Road Safety Awareness Campaign Deployed along the Roadside in Saguenay (Québec, Canada)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(11), pages 1-13, May.
    2. Luo, Yu & Graham, Daniel J. & McCoy, Emma J., 2023. "Semiparametric Bayesian doubly robust causal estimation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117944, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Moran, Marcel E, 2023. "Authorized Vehicles Only: Police, parking, and pedestrian access in New York City," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2f7608c2, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.

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