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A VVWBO-BVO-based GM (1,1) and its parameter optimization by GRA-IGSA integration algorithm for annual power load forecasting

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  • Lianhui Li
  • Hongguang Wang

Abstract

Annual power load forecasting is not only the premise of formulating reasonable macro power planning, but also an important guarantee for the safety and economic operation of power system. In view of the characteristics of annual power load forecasting, the grey model of GM (1,1) are widely applied. Introducing buffer operator into GM (1,1) to pre-process the historical annual power load data is an approach to improve the forecasting accuracy. To solve the problem of nonadjustable action intensity of traditional weakening buffer operator, variable-weight weakening buffer operator (VWWBO) and background value optimization (BVO) are used to dynamically pre-process the historical annual power load data and a VWWBO-BVO-based GM (1,1) is proposed. To find the optimal value of variable-weight buffer coefficient and background value weight generating coefficient of the proposed model, grey relational analysis (GRA) and improved gravitational search algorithm (IGSA) are integrated and a GRA-IGSA integration algorithm is constructed aiming to maximize the grey relativity between simulating value sequence and actual value sequence. By the adjustable action intensity of buffer operator, the proposed model optimized by GRA-IGSA integration algorithm can obtain a better forecasting accuracy which is demonstrated by the case studies and can provide an optimized solution for annual power load forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Lianhui Li & Hongguang Wang, 2018. "A VVWBO-BVO-based GM (1,1) and its parameter optimization by GRA-IGSA integration algorithm for annual power load forecasting," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0196816
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0196816
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ömer Özgür Bozkurt & Göksel Biricik & Ziya Cihan Tayşi, 2017. "Artificial neural network and SARIMA based models for power load forecasting in Turkish electricity market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, April.
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    1. Peng Zhang & Xin Ma & Kun She, 2019. "Forecasting Japan’s Solar Energy Consumption Using a Novel Incomplete Gamma Grey Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Melillo, Andreas & Durrer, Roman & Worlitschek, Jörg & Schütz, Philipp, 2020. "First results of remote building characterisation based on smart meter measurement data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Tan, Mao & Liao, Chengchen & Chen, Jie & Cao, Yijia & Wang, Rui & Su, Yongxin, 2023. "A multi-task learning method for multi-energy load forecasting based on synthesis correlation analysis and load participation factor," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    4. Li, Kang & Duan, Pengfei & Cao, Xiaodong & Cheng, Yuanda & Zhao, Bingxu & Xue, Qingwen & Feng, Mengdan, 2024. "A multi-energy load forecasting method based on complementary ensemble empirical model decomposition and composite evaluation factor reconstruction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).

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