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Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition?

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  • Tom Moultrie
  • Takudzwa Sayi
  • Ian Timæus

Abstract

We investigated birth-interval dynamics in 24 African countries using data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted since 1986. Controlling for selection bias in the birth-history data using the Brass–Juárez method and regression models produced almost identical results. Birth intervals have lengthened in every country examined. This analysis uncovered a distinctive and previously undocumented pattern of childbearing that is prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. After allowing for time trends in birth-interval length, the lengthening of birth intervals in almost every country varies little by women's age or parity. Moreover, in several countries, birth intervals are now too long to be explicable by birth spacing contingent on the age of women's youngest child. Rather, women are postponing births for other reasons. These findings offer empirical support for the idea that the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa is following a different pattern from that observed elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Moultrie & Takudzwa Sayi & Ian Timæus, 2012. "Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition?," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(3), pages 241-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:241-258
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.701660
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    Cited by:

    1. Kathryn Grace & Stuart Sweeney, 2016. "Ethnic Dimensions of Guatemala’s Stalled Transition: A Parity-Specific Analysis of Ladino and Indigenous Fertility Regimes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 117-137, February.
    2. Catriona Towriss & Ian Timæus, 2018. "Contraceptive use and lengthening birth intervals in rural and urban Eastern Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(64), pages 2027-2052.
    3. Rotimi Felix Afolabi & Martin Enock Palamuleni, 2022. "Influence of Maternal Education on Second Childbirth Interval Among Women in South Africa: Rural-Urban Differential Using Survival Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    4. Mathias Lerch & Thomas Spoorenberg, 2020. "The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(30), pages 827-858.
    5. Sarah R. Hayford & Victor Agadjanian, 2019. "Spacing, Stopping, or Postponing? Fertility Desires in a Sub-Saharan Setting," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 573-594, April.
    6. González Alejandro López & González-González María Jesús, 2018. "Third demographic transition and demographic dividend: An application based on panel data analysis," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 42(42), pages 59-82, December.
    7. Ziba Taghizadeh & Fereshteh Behmanesh & Abbas Ebadi, 2016. "Marriage Patterns and Childbearing: Results From a Quantitative Study in North of Iran," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(3), pages 1-1, March.
    8. Florianne C. J. Verkroost & Christiaan W. S. Monden, 2022. "Childlessness and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is There Evidence for a U-shaped Pattern?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(3), pages 319-352, August.
    9. Melanie Dawn Channon & Sarah Harper, 2019. "Educational differentials in the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
    10. Gauthier T. Kashalala & Steven F. Koch, 2014. "The Economic Approach to Fertility: A Causal Mediation Analysis," Working Papers 201434, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen, 2016. "Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 55-83, February.
    12. Thomas Spoorenberg & Hamidou Issaka Maga, 2018. "Fertility compression in Niger: A study of fertility change by parity (1977–2011)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(24), pages 685-700.
    13. Thomas Spoorenberg, 2019. "Forty years of fertility changes in the Sahel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(46), pages 1289-1314.
    14. Ian M. Timæus & Tom A. Moultrie, 2020. "Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 267-296, February.
    15. Mathias Lerch, 2017. "Urban and rural fertility transitions in the developing world: a cohort perspective," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. John Cleland, 2013. "World Population Growth; Past, Present and Future," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 543-554, August.
    17. Sarah Walters, 2016. "Counting Souls," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(3), pages 63-108.
    18. Desmond Klu, 2023. "Are fertility theories still relevant in explaining fertility behaviour in traditional and contemporary societies in sub-Saharan Africa? A systematic review," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 1-17, June.
    19. Konstantin Kazenin & Vladimir Kozlov, 2020. "What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 185-213.
    20. Athena Pantazis & Samuel J Clark, 2018. "A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, January.
    21. Molly Rosenberg & Audrey Pettifor & Nadia Nguyen & Daniel Westreich & Jacob Bor & Till Bärnighausen & Paul Mee & Rhian Twine & Stephen Tollman & Kathleen Kahn, 2015. "Relationship between Receipt of a Social Protection Grant for a Child and Second Pregnancy Rates among South African Women: A Cohort Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-12, September.
    22. Mathias Lerch, 2020. "The emergence and diffusion of birth limitation in urban areas of developing countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    23. Daniel Jordan Smith, 2020. "Masculinity, Money, and the Postponement of Parenthood in Nigeria," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 101-120, March.

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