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A model for predicting Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth as a function of temperature

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  • Gerard Morales
  • Isidre Llorente
  • Emilio Montesinos
  • Concepció Moragrega

Abstract

A two-step modeling approach was used for predicting the effect of temperature on the growth of Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni, causal agent of bacterial spot disease of stone fruit. The in vitro growth of seven strains was monitored at temperatures from 5 to 35°C with a Bioscreen C system, and a calibrating equation was generated for converting optical densities to viable counts. In primary modeling, Baranyi, Buchanan, and modified Gompertz equations were fitted to viable count growth curves over the entire temperature range. The modified Gompertz model showed the best fit to the data, and it was selected to estimate the bacterial growth parameters at each temperature. Secondary modeling of maximum specific growth rate as a function of temperature was performed by using the Ratkowsky model and its variations. The modified Ratkowsky model showed the best goodness of fit to maximum specific growth rate estimates, and it was validated successfully for the seven strains at four additional temperatures. The model generated in this work will be used for predicting temperature-based Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth rate and derived potential daily doublings, and included as the inoculum potential component of a bacterial spot of stone fruit disease forecaster.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard Morales & Isidre Llorente & Emilio Montesinos & Concepció Moragrega, 2017. "A model for predicting Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni growth as a function of temperature," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0177583
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177583
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baty, Florent & Ritz, Christian & Charles, Sandrine & Brutsche, Martin & Flandrois, Jean-Pierre & Delignette-Muller, Marie-Laure, 2015. "A Toolbox for Nonlinear Regression in R: The Package nlstools," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 66(i05).
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    1. Gerard Morales & Concepció Moragrega & Emilio Montesinos & Isidre Llorente, 2018. "Effects of leaf wetness duration and temperature on infection of Prunus by Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, March.

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