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Eight habitats, 38 threats and 55 experts: Assessing ecological risk in a multi-use marine region

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  • Zoë A Doubleday
  • Alice R Jones
  • Marty R Deveney
  • Tim M Ward
  • Bronwyn M Gillanders

Abstract

Identifying the relative risk human activities pose to a habitat, and the ecosystem services they provide, can guide management prioritisation and resource allocation. Using a combination of expert elicitation to assess the probable effect of a threat and existing data to assess the level of threat exposure, we conducted a risk assessment for 38 human-mediated threats to eight marine habitats (totalling 304 threat-habitat combinations) in Spencer Gulf, Australia. We developed a score-based survey to collate expert opinion and assess the relative effect of each threat to each habitat, as well as a novel and independent measure of knowledge-based uncertainty. Fifty-five experts representing multiple sectors and institutions participated in the study, with 6 to 15 survey responses per habitat (n = 81 surveys). We identified key threats specific to each habitat; overall, climate change threats received the highest risk rankings, with nutrient discharge identified as a key local-scale stressor. Invasive species and most fishing-related threats, which are commonly identified as major threats to the marine environment, were ranked as low-tier threats to Spencer Gulf, emphasising the importance of regionally-relevant assessments. Further, we identified critical knowledge gaps and quantified uncertainty scores for each risk. Our approach will facilitate prioritisation of resource allocation in a region of increasing social, economic and environmental importance, and can be applied to marine regions where empirical data are lacking.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoë A Doubleday & Alice R Jones & Marty R Deveney & Tim M Ward & Bronwyn M Gillanders, 2017. "Eight habitats, 38 threats and 55 experts: Assessing ecological risk in a multi-use marine region," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-15, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0177393
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177393
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