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The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

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  • James Tan
  • Siew Ann Cheong

Abstract

The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy.

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  • James Tan & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-8, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0162140
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0162140
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ismail, Mohd Sabri & Noorani, Mohd Salmi Md & Ismail, Munira & Razak, Fatimah Abdul & Alias, Mohd Almie, 2022. "Early warning signals of financial crises using persistent homology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 586(C).
    2. Haoyu Wen & Massimo Pica Ciamarra & Siew Ann Cheong, 2018. "How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2023. "Sentiment-based indicators of real estate market stress and systemic risk: international evidence," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-382, September.
    4. James PL Tan, 2016. "A Generalized Population Dynamics Model of a City and an Algorithm for Engineering Regime Shifts," Papers 1612.08338, arXiv.org.
    5. Tan, James P.L., 2018. "An algorithm for engineering regime shifts in one-dimensional dynamical systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 721-731.
    6. Yiyi Chen & Colin A. Jones & Neil A. Dunse & Enquan Li & Ye Liu, 2023. "Housing Prices and the Characteristics of Nearby Green Space: Does Landscape Pattern Index Matter? Evidence from Metropolitan Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, February.

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