IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0138278.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Renato M Coutinho
  • Roberto A Kraenkel
  • Paulo I Prado

Abstract

The relation between rainfall and water accumulated in reservoirs comprises nonlinear feedbacks. Here we show that they may generate alternative equilibrium regimes, one of high water-volume, the other of low water-volume. Reservoirs can be seen as socio-environmental systems at risk of regime shifts, characteristic of tipping point transitions. We analyze data from stored water, rainfall, and water inflow and outflow in the main reservoir serving the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, by means of indicators of critical regime shifts, and find a strong signal of a transition. We furthermore build a mathematical model that gives a mechanistic view of the dynamics and demonstrates that alternative stable states are an expected property of water reservoirs. We also build a stochastic version of this model that fits well to the data. These results highlight the broader aspect that reservoir management must account for their intrinsic bistability, and should benefit from dynamical systems theory. Our case study illustrates the catastrophic consequences of failing to do so.

Suggested Citation

  • Renato M Coutinho & Roberto A Kraenkel & Paulo I Prado, 2015. "Catastrophic Regime Shift in Water Reservoirs and São Paulo Water Supply Crisis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0138278
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0138278
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0138278&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0138278?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marten Scheffer & Steve Carpenter & Jonathan A. Foley & Carl Folke & Brian Walker, 2001. "Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6856), pages 591-596, October.
    2. Vasilis Dakos & Stephen R Carpenter & William A Brock & Aaron M Ellison & Vishwesha Guttal & Anthony R Ives & Sonia Kéfi & Valerie Livina & David A Seekell & Egbert H van Nes & Marten Scheffer, 2012. "Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-20, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Neha Deopa & Daniele Rinaldo, 2024. "Quickest Detection of Ecological Regimes for Natural Resource Management," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(5), pages 1327-1366, May.
    2. Michels-Brito, Adriane & Rodriguez, Daniel Andrés & Cruz Junior, Wellington Luís & Nildo de Souza Vianna, João, 2021. "The climate change potential effects on the run-of-river plant and the environmental and economic dimensions of sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna & Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario, 2017. "Economic indicators of hydrologic drought insurance under water demand and climate change scenarios in a Brazilian context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 66-78.
    4. Schauf, Andrew & Oh, Poong, 2021. "Adaptation strategies and collective dynamics of extraction in networked commons of bistable resources," SocArXiv wmtqk, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William A Brock & Stephen R Carpenter, 2012. "Early Warnings of Regime Shift When the Ecosystem Structure Is Unknown," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(9), pages 1-10, September.
    2. Tatiana Baumuratova & Simona Dobre & Thierry Bastogne & Thomas Sauter, 2013. "Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Riddhi Singh & Julianne D Quinn & Patrick M Reed & Klaus Keller, 2018. "Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Georg Jäger & Manfred Füllsack, 2019. "Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Tirabassi, Giulio & Masoller, Cristina, 2022. "Correlation lags give early warning signals of approaching bifurcations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    6. Georg Jäger & Christian Hofer & Marie Kapeller & Manfred Füllsack, 2017. "Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Trisha L Spanbauer & Craig R Allen & David G Angeler & Tarsha Eason & Sherilyn C Fritz & Ahjond S Garmestani & Kirsty L Nash & Jeffery R Stone, 2014. "Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-7, October.
    8. Moghadam, Nastaran Navid & Ramamoorthy, Ramesh & Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Rajagopal, Karthikeyan & Jafari, Sajad, 2022. "Tipping points of a complex network biomass model: Local and global parameter variations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    9. Ian Hodge & William M. Adams, 2016. "Short-Term Projects versus Adaptive Governance: Conflicting Demands in the Management of Ecological Restoration," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Richter, Andries & Dakos, Vasilis, 2015. "Profit fluctuations signal eroding resilience of natural resources," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 12-21.
    11. Jenerette, G. Darrel & Lal, Rattan, 2007. "Modeled carbon sequestration variation in a linked erosion–deposition system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 207-216.
    12. Rustici, M. & Ceccherelli, G. & Piazzi, L., 2017. "Predator exploitation and sea urchin bistability: Consequence on benthic alternative states," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 344(C), pages 1-5.
    13. Rodrigues, João & Domingos, Tiago & Conceição, Pedro & Belbute, José, 2005. "Constraints on dematerialisation and allocation of natural capital along a sustainable growth path," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 382-396, September.
    14. Xu Luo & Hong S. He & Yu Liang & Jacob S. Fraser & Jialin Li, 2018. "Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change through Harvesting and Planting in Boreal Forests of Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Carlos Sanz-Lazaro, 2019. "A Framework to Advance the Understanding of the Ecological Effects of Extreme Climate Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-18, October.
    16. Teh, Su Yean & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Sternberg, Leonel da Silveira Lobo & Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. & Smith, Thomas J. & Koh, Hock-Lye, 2008. "A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 245-256.
    17. Karimi Rahjerdi, Bahareh & Ramamoorthy, Ramesh & Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Rajagopal, Karthikeyan & Jafari, Sajad, 2022. "Indicating the synchronization bifurcation points using the early warning signals in two case studies: Continuous and explosive synchronization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    18. Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette & Mzoughi, Naoufel, 2020. "Moral judgment of environmental harm caused by a single versus multiple wrongdoers: A survey experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    19. Kong, Xiang-Zhen & Jørgensen, Sven Erik & He, Wei & Qin, Ning & Xu, Fu-Liu, 2013. "Predicting the restoration effects by a structural dynamic approach in Lake Chaohu, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 73-85.
    20. Paul L. G. Vlek & Asia Khamzina & Hossein Azadi & Anik Bhaduri & Luna Bharati & Ademola Braimoh & Christopher Martius & Terry Sunderland & Fatemeh Taheri, 2017. "Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0138278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.