IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0102960.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can Male Circumcision Have an Impact on the HIV Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men?

Author

Listed:
  • Steven M Goodreau
  • Nicole B Carnegie
  • Eric Vittinghoff
  • Javier R Lama
  • Jonathan D Fuchs
  • Jorge Sanchez
  • Susan P Buchbinder

Abstract

Background: Three trials have demonstrated the prophylactic effect of male circumcision (MC) for HIV acquisition among heterosexuals, and MC interventions are underway throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Similar efforts for men who have sex with men (MSM) are stymied by the potential for circumcised MSM to acquire HIV easily through receptive sex and transmit easily through insertive sex. Existing work suggests that MC for MSM should reach its maximum potential in settings where sexual role segregation is historically high and relatively stable across the lifecourse; HIV incidence among MSM is high; reported willingness for prophylactic circumcision is high; and pre-existing circumcision rates are low. We aim to identify the likely public health impact that MC interventions among MSM would have in one setting that fulfills these conditions—Peru—as a theoretical upper bound for their effectiveness among MSM generally. Methods and Findings: We use a dynamic, stochastic sexual network model based in exponential-family random graph modeling and parameterized from multiple behavioral surveys of Peruvian MSM. We consider three enrollment criteria (insertive during 100%, >80% or >60% of UAI) and two levels of uptake (25% and 50% of eligible men); we explore sexual role proportions from two studies and different frequencies of switching among role categories. Each scenario is simulated 10 times. We estimate that efficiency could reach one case averted per 6 circumcisions. However, the population-level impact of an optimistic MSM-MC intervention in this setting would likely be at most ∼5–10% incidence and prevalence reductions over 25 years. Conclusions: Roll-out of MC for MSM in Peru would not result in a substantial reduction in new HIV infections, despite characteristics in this population that could maximize such effects. Additional studies are needed to confirm these results for other MSM populations, and providers may consider the individual health benefits of offering MC to their MSM patients.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven M Goodreau & Nicole B Carnegie & Eric Vittinghoff & Javier R Lama & Jonathan D Fuchs & Jorge Sanchez & Susan P Buchbinder, 2014. "Can Male Circumcision Have an Impact on the HIV Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-9, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0102960
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102960
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0102960
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0102960&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0102960?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hunter, David R. & Handcock, Mark S. & Butts, Carter T. & Goodreau, Steven M. & Morris, Martina, 2008. "ergm: A Package to Fit, Simulate and Diagnose Exponential-Family Models for Networks," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 24(i03).
    2. Stanley Wasserman & Philippa Pattison, 1996. "Logit models and logistic regressions for social networks: I. An introduction to Markov graphs andp," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 401-425, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maria Ganczak & Marcin Korzeń & Maciej Olszewski, 2017. "Attitudes, Beliefs and Predictors of Male Circumcision Promotion among Medical University Students in a Traditionally Non-Circumcising Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Wouter Vermeer & Arthur Hjorth & Samuel M. Jenness & C Hendrick Brown & Uri Wilensky, 2020. "Leveraging Modularity During Replication of High-Fidelity Models: Lessons from Replicating an Agent-Based Model for HIV Prevention," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 23(4), pages 1-7.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Krivitsky, Pavel N., 2017. "Using contrastive divergence to seed Monte Carlo MLE for exponential-family random graph models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 149-161.
    2. Cody J. Dey & James S. Quinn, 2014. "Individual attributes and self-organizational processes affect dominance network structure in pukeko," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 25(6), pages 1402-1408.
    3. De Nicola, Giacomo & Fritz, Cornelius & Mehrl, Marius & Kauermann, Göran, 2023. "Dependence matters: Statistical models to identify the drivers of tie formation in economic networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 351-363.
    4. Goodreau, Steven M. & Handcock, Mark S. & Hunter, David R. & Butts, Carter T. & Morris, Martina, 2008. "A statnet Tutorial," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 24(i09).
    5. Angel Ortiz-Pelaez & Getaneh Ashenafi & Francois Roger & Agnes Waret-Szkuta, 2012. "Can Geographical Factors Determine the Choices of Farmers in the Ethiopian Highlands to Trade in Livestock Markets?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-11, February.
    6. Lee, Jihui & Li, Gen & Wilson, James D., 2020. "Varying-coefficient models for dynamic networks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Pavel N. Krivitsky & Laura M. Koehly & Christopher Steven Marcum, 2020. "Exponential-Family Random Graph Models for Multi-Layer Networks," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 85(3), pages 630-659, September.
    8. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2024. "The network econometrics of financial concentration," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 18(7), pages 2007-2045, July.
    9. Yaveroğlu, Ömer Nebil & Fitzhugh, Sean M. & Kurant, Maciej & Markopoulou, Athina & Butts, Carter T. & Pržulj, Nataša, 2015. "ergm.graphlets: A Package for ERG Modeling Based on Graphlet Statistics," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 65(i12).
    10. Jeffrey A. Smith & Jessica Burow, 2020. "Using Ego Network Data to Inform Agent-based Models of Diffusion," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 49(4), pages 1018-1063, November.
    11. Kei, Yik Lun & Chen, Yanzhen & Madrid Padilla, Oscar Hernan, 2023. "A partially separable model for dynamic valued networks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    12. Ivan Cucco, 2014. "Network-based policies and innovation networks in two Italian regions: a comparison through a social selection model," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(114), pages 78-96.
    13. Joshua Daniel Loyal & Yuguo Chen, 2020. "Statistical Network Analysis: A Review with Applications to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 419-440, August.
    14. Johannes Pol, 2019. "Introduction to Network Modeling Using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM): Theory and an Application Using R-Project," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 845-875, October.
    15. Vishesh Karwa & Pavel N. Krivitsky & Aleksandra B. Slavković, 2017. "Sharing social network data: differentially private estimation of exponential family random-graph models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 481-500, April.
    16. He, Xi-jun & Dong, Yan-bo & Wu, Yu-ying & Jiang, Guo-rui & Zheng, Yao, 2019. "Factors affecting evolution of the interprovincial technology patent trade networks in China based on exponential random graph models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 443-457.
    17. Steven Goodreau & James Kitts & Martina Morris, 2009. "Birds of a feather, or friend of a friend? using exponential random graph models to investigate adolescent social networks," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 103-125, February.
    18. Leifeld, Philip, 2018. "Polarization in the social sciences: Assortative mixing in social science collaboration networks is resilient to interventions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 510-523.
    19. Ashish Arora & Michelle Gittelman & Sarah Kaplan & John Lynch & Will Mitchell & Nicolaj Siggelkow & Ji Youn (Rose) Kim & Michael Howard & Emily Cox Pahnke & Warren Boeker, 2016. "Understanding network formation in strategy research: Exponential random graph models," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 22-44, January.
    20. Bouranis, Lampros & Friel, Nial & Maire, Florian, 2018. "Model comparison for Gibbs random fields using noisy reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 221-241.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0102960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.