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Books Average Previous Decade of Economic Misery

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  • R Alexander Bentley
  • Alberto Acerbi
  • Paul Ormerod
  • Vasileios Lampos

Abstract

For the 20th century since the Depression, we find a strong correlation between a ‘literary misery index’ derived from English language books and a moving average of the previous decade of the annual U.S. economic misery index, which is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates. We find a peak in the goodness of fit at 11 years for the moving average. The fit between the two misery indices holds when using different techniques to measure the literary misery index, and this fit is significantly better than other possible correlations with different emotion indices. To check the robustness of the results, we also analysed books written in German language and obtained very similar correlations with the German economic misery index. The results suggest that millions of books published every year average the authors' shared economic experiences over the past decade.

Suggested Citation

  • R Alexander Bentley & Alberto Acerbi & Paul Ormerod & Vasileios Lampos, 2014. "Books Average Previous Decade of Economic Misery," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0083147
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0083147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Acerbi, Alberto & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2021. "The self-control vs. self-indulgence dilemma: A culturomic analysis of 20th century trends," OSF Preprints xgqt5, Center for Open Science.
    3. Damian Ruck & R. Alexander Bentley & Alberto Acerbi & Philip Garnett & Daniel J. Hruschka, 2017. "Role Of Neutral Evolution In Word Turnover During Centuries Of English Word Popularity," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(06n07), pages 1-16, September.
    4. Kuhn, Andreas, 2022. "The Times Have Changed: Tracking the Evolution of Gender Norms over Time," IZA Discussion Papers 15621, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Yunsong Chen & Fei Yan & Yi Zhang, 2017. "Local name, global fame: The international visibility of Chinese cities in modern times," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(11), pages 2652-2668, August.
    6. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carmen Lafuente, 2020. "Persistence of the Misery Index in African Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 825-841, February.
    7. Melissa A Wheeler & Melanie J McGrath & Nick Haslam, 2019. "Twentieth century morality: The rise and fall of moral concepts from 1900 to 2007," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-12, February.
    8. Benjamin D. Horne & Natalie M. Rice & Catherine A. Luther & Damian J. Ruck & Joshua Borycz & Suzie L. Allard & Michael Fitzgerald & Oleg Manaev & Brandon C. Prins & Maureen Taylor & R. Alexander Bentl, 2023. "Generational effects of culture and digital media in former Soviet Republics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Acerbi, Alberto & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2022. "The self-control vs. self-indulgence dilemma: A culturomic analysis of 20th century trends," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    10. Ludovic Rheault & Kaspar Beelen & Christopher Cochrane & Graeme Hirst, 2016. "Measuring Emotion in Parliamentary Debates with Automated Textual Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, December.

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