IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0076404.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic Transition in India: An Evolutionary Interpretation of Population and Health Trends Using ‘Change-Point Analysis’

Author

Listed:
  • Srinivas Goli
  • Perianayagam Arokiasamy

Abstract

Background and Rationale: Lack of a robust analytical tool for trend analysis of population and health indicators is the basic rationale of this study. In an effort to fill this gap, this study advances ‘Change-Point analyzer’ as a new analytical tool for assessment of the progress and its pattern in population and health indicators. Methodology/Principal Findings: The defining feature of ‘change-point analyzer’ is that, it detects subtle changes that are often missed in simple trend line plots and also quantified the volume of change that is not possible in simple trend line plots. A long-term assessment of ‘change-point analyses’ of trends in population and health indicators such as IMR, Population size, TFR, and LEB in India show multiple points of critical changes. Measured change points of demographic and health trends helps in understanding the demographic transitional shifts connecting it to contextual policy shifts. Critical change-points in population and health indicators in India are associated with the evolution of structural changes in population and health policy framework. Conclusions: This study, therefore, adds significantly to the evolutionary interpretation of critical change-points in long-term trajectories of population and health indicators vis-a-vis population and health policy shifts in India. The results have not only helped in reassessing the historical past and the current demographic transition trajectory but also advanced a new method of assessing the population and health trends which are necessary for robust monitoring of the progress in population and health policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Srinivas Goli & Perianayagam Arokiasamy, 2013. "Demographic Transition in India: An Evolutionary Interpretation of Population and Health Trends Using ‘Change-Point Analysis’," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-9, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0076404
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0076404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076404
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076404&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0076404?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    2. Luis Angeles, 2010. "Demographic transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 99-120, January.
    3. John C. Caldwell, 2004. "Demographic Theory: A Long View," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 297-316, June.
    4. Chris Wilson, 2001. "On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950–2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 155-171, March.
    5. Christophe Z. Guilmoto & S. Irudaya Rajan, 2001. "Spatial Patterns of Fertility Transition in Indian Districts," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 713-738, December.
    6. Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, June.
    7. Chris Wilson, 2011. "Understanding Global Demographic Convergence since 1950," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 375-388, June.
    8. Shawn F. Dorius, 2008. "Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 519-537, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Srinivas, Goli, 2014. "Demographic convergence and its linkage with health inequalities in India," MPRA Paper 79823, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2014.
    2. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha, 2012. "Fertility choice under child mortality and social norms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 338-341.
    3. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, September.
    4. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Kim, Minkyong, 2023. "Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Olivia Bertelli, 2015. "The more the merrier? Adjusting fertility to weather shocks," PSE Working Papers halshs-01226421, HAL.
    6. Katharina Mühlhoff, 2022. "Darwin beats malthus: evolutionary anthropology, human capital and the demographic transition," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 575-614, September.
    7. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    8. Filoso, Valerio & Papagni, Erasmo, 2015. "Fertility choice and financial development," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 160-177.
    9. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    10. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    11. Nicholas Wilson, 2015. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume II: Human Capital, pages 59-83, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wang, Qingfeng & Sun, Xu, 2016. "The Role of Socio-political and Economic Factors in Fertility Decline: A Cross-country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 360-370.
    13. Papagni, Erasmo, 2018. "Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 248, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    14. Jun, Bogang, 2013. "The Trade-off between Fertility and Education: Evidence from the Korean Development Path," MPRA Paper 43971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Lars Lønstrup, 2014. "The Fertility Transition in the US: Schooling or Income?," Economics Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Yukio Fukumoto & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2019. "How Different are demographic impacts on trade openness by geographic region?:Findings from Europe,Asia,America,and Africa," Discussion Papers 1912, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    17. Srinivas Goli & Moradhvaj & Swastika Chakravorty & Anu Rammohan, 2019. "World health status 1950-2015: Converging or diverging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-20, March.
    18. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
    19. Moshe Hazan, 2012. "Life expectancy and schooling: new insights from cross-country data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(4), pages 1237-1248, October.
    20. Erasmo Papagni, 2023. "Long-term barriers to global fertility convergence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 431-470, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0076404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.