IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0063475.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Model Selection Approach Suggests Causal Association between 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Colorectal Cancer

Author

Listed:
  • Lina Zgaga
  • Felix Agakov
  • Evropi Theodoratou
  • Susan M Farrington
  • Albert Tenesa
  • Malcolm G Dunlop
  • Paul McKeigue
  • Harry Campbell

Abstract

Introduction: Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders. Methods: Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD), genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls) and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions. Results: Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model), and also for deviance information criteria (DIC) computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores. Conclusion: Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations.

Suggested Citation

  • Lina Zgaga & Felix Agakov & Evropi Theodoratou & Susan M Farrington & Albert Tenesa & Malcolm G Dunlop & Paul McKeigue & Harry Campbell, 2013. "Model Selection Approach Suggests Causal Association between 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Colorectal Cancer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-11, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0063475
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0063475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0063475
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0063475&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0063475?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Law, 2009. "Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology by LAWSON, A. B," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(2), pages 661-662, June.
    2. O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Labor Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    3. Yanqing Chen & Jun Zhu & Pek Yee Lum & Xia Yang & Shirly Pinto & Douglas J. MacNeil & Chunsheng Zhang & John Lamb & Stephen Edwards & Solveig K. Sieberts & Amy Leonardson & Lawrence W. Castellini & Su, 2008. "Variations in DNA elucidate molecular networks that cause disease," Nature, Nature, vol. 452(7186), pages 429-435, March.
    4. Trostel, Philip & Walker, Ian & Woolley, Paul, 2002. "Estimates of the economic return to schooling for 28 countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, February.
    5. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    6. Nuala A Sheehan & Vanessa Didelez & Paul R Burton & Martin D Tobin, 2008. "Mendelian Randomisation and Causal Inference in Observational Epidemiology," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(8), pages 1-6, August.
    7. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863, Elsevier.
    8. Evropi Theodoratou & Tom Palmer & Lina Zgaga & Susan M Farrington & Paul McKeigue & Farhat V N Din & Albert Tenesa & George Davey-Smith & Malcolm G Dunlop & Harry Campbell, 2012. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of the Causal Effect of Plasma 25-Hydroxy-Vitamin D on Colorectal Cancer Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(6), pages 1-10, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theodore Koutmeridis, 2013. "The Market for "Rough Diamonds": Information, Finance and Wage Inequality," CDMA Working Paper Series 201307, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 14 Oct 2013.
    2. Penka Kovacheva, 2011. "Human capital and wage inequality during transition: evidence from Bulgaria," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 237-255.
    3. Christophe Nordman & François-Charles Wolff, 2007. "On-the-job learning and earnings in Benin, Morocco and Senegal," Working Papers DT/2007/09, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    4. Denny, Kevin & Harmon, Colm & Lydon, Reamonn, 2002. "Cross Country Evidence on the Returns to Education: Patterns and Explanations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3199, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0065 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. A. Bergeaud & G. Cette & R. Lecat, 2016. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in 20th century productivity growth," Working papers 588, Banque de France.
    7. Yang, Dennis Tao, 2005. "Determinants of schooling returns during transition: Evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-264, June.
    8. Gounder, Rukmani & Xing, Zhongwei, 2012. "Impact of education and health on poverty reduction: Monetary and non-monetary evidence from Fiji," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 787-794.
    9. Carolina Castagnetti & Luisa Rosti, 2010. "The Gender Gap in Academic Achievements of Italian Graduates," Quaderni di Dipartimento 118, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    10. Juan C. Palomino & Gustavo A. Marrero & Juan G. Rodríguez, 2019. "Channels of Inequality of Opportunity: The Role of Education and Occupation in Europe," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 1045-1074, June.
    11. C Dougherty, 2003. "Why is the Rate of Return to Schooling Higher For Women Than For Men?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0581, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Polachek, Solomon W., 2008. "Earnings Over the Life Cycle: The Mincer Earnings Function and Its Applications," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 165-272, April.
    13. Karlis Vilerts & Olegs Krasnopjorovs & Edgars Brekis, 2015. "Does Education Affect Wages During and After Economic Crisis? Evidence from Latvia (2006–2012)," Working Papers 2015/03, Latvijas Banka.
    14. Aysit Tansel & Yousef Daoud, 2011. "Comparative Essays on Returns to Education in Palestine and Turkey," ERC Working Papers 1102, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2011.
    15. Colm Harmon & Hessel Oosterbeek & Ian Walker, 2003. "The Returns to Education: Microeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 115-156, April.
    16. Wallace, Michael T. & Jack, Claire G., 2011. "On‐Farm and Off‐Farm Returns to Education among Farm Operators in Northern Ireland," 85th Annual Conference, April 18-20, 2011, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 108786, Agricultural Economics Society.
    17. Lisa Grazzini, 2016. "The Importance of the Quality of Education: Some Determinants and its Effects on Earning Returns and Economic Growth," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 43-82.
    18. Middendorf, Torge, 2008. "Returns to Education in Europe – Detailed Results from a Harmonized Survey," Ruhr Economic Papers 65, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    19. Todd Schoellman, 2007. "The Causes and Consequences of Cross-Country Differences in Schooling Attainment," 2007 Meeting Papers 297, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Justin Van Der Sluis & Mirjam Van Praag & Wim Vijverberg, 2008. "Education And Entrepreneurship Selection And Performance: A Review Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 795-841, December.
    21. Castagnetti, Carolina & Rosti, Luisa, 2009. "Effort allocation in tournaments: The effect of gender on academic performance in Italian universities," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 357-369, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0063475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.