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Accounting for Imperfect Detection Is Critical for Inferring Marine Turtle Nesting Population Trends

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  • Joseph B Pfaller
  • Karen A Bjorndal
  • Milani Chaloupka
  • Kristina L Williams
  • Michael G Frick
  • Alan B Bolten

Abstract

: Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph B Pfaller & Karen A Bjorndal & Milani Chaloupka & Kristina L Williams & Michael G Frick & Alan B Bolten, 2013. "Accounting for Imperfect Detection Is Critical for Inferring Marine Turtle Nesting Population Trends," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-5, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0062326
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062326
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William L. Kendall & Rhema Bjorkland, 2001. "Using Open Robust Design Models to Estimate Temporary Emigration from Capture—Recapture Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 1113-1122, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stubbs, Jessica L. & Marn, Nina & Vanderklift, Mathew A. & Fossette, Sabrina & Mitchell, Nicola J., 2020. "Simulated growth and reproduction of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) under climate change and marine heatwave scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).
    2. Warden, Melissa L. & Haas, Heather L. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Richards, Paul M., 2015. "A spatially explicit population model of simulated fisheries impact on loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 299(C), pages 23-39.

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