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Impact of Preventive Responses to Epidemics in Rural Regions

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  • Phillip Schumm
  • Walter Schumm
  • Caterina Scoglio

Abstract

Various epidemics have arisen in rural locations through human-animal interaction, such as the H1N1 outbreak of 2009. Through collaboration with local government officials, we have surveyed a rural county and its communities and collected a dataset characterizing the rural population. From the respondents’ answers, we build a social (face-to-face) contact network. With this network, we explore the potential spread of epidemics through a Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered (SLIR) disease model. We simulate an exact model of a stochastic SLIR Poisson process with disease parameters representing a typical influenza-like illness. We test vaccine distribution strategies under limited resources. We examine global and location-based distribution strategies, as a way to reach critical individuals in the rural setting. We demonstrate that locations can be identified through contact metrics for use in vaccination strategies to control contagious diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip Schumm & Walter Schumm & Caterina Scoglio, 2013. "Impact of Preventive Responses to Epidemics in Rural Regions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0059028
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0059028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel M Cornforth & Timothy C Reluga & Eunha Shim & Chris T Bauch & Alison P Galvani & Lauren Ancel Meyers, 2011. "Erratic Flu Vaccination Emerges from Short-Sighted Behavior in Contact Networks," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, January.
    2. Ozgur Araz & Alison Galvani & Lauren Meyers, 2012. "Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 175-187, September.
    3. Marcel Salathé & James H Jones, 2010. "Dynamics and Control of Diseases in Networks with Community Structure," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(4), pages 1-11, April.
    4. Caterina Scoglio & Walter Schumm & Phillip Schumm & Todd Easton & Sohini Roy Chowdhury & Ali Sydney & Mina Youssef, 2010. "Efficient Mitigation Strategies for Epidemics in Rural Regions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(7), pages 1-8, July.
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