IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0047145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of the California Tobacco Control Program on Smoking Prevalence, Cigarette Consumption, and Healthcare Costs: 1989–2008

Author

Listed:
  • James Lightwood
  • Stanton A Glantz

Abstract

Background: Previous research has shown that tobacco control funding in California has reduced per capita cigarette consumption and per capita healthcare expenditures. This paper refines our earlier model by estimating the effect of California tobacco control funding on current smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption per smoker and the effect of prevalence and consumption on per capita healthcare expenditures. The results are used to calculate new estimates of the effect of the California Tobacco Program. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using state-specific aggregate data, current smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption per smoker are modeled as functions of cumulative California and control states' per capita tobacco control funding, cigarette price, and per capita income. Per capita healthcare expenditures are modeled as a function of prevalence of current smoking, cigarette consumption per smoker, and per capita income. One additional dollar of cumulative per capita tobacco control funding is associated with reduction in current smoking prevalence of 0.0497 (SE.00347) percentage points and current smoker cigarette consumption of 1.39 (SE.132) packs per smoker per year. Reductions of one percentage point in current smoking prevalence and one pack smoked per smoker are associated with $35.4 (SE $9.85) and $3.14 (SE.786) reductions in per capita healthcare expenditure, respectively (2010 dollars), using the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) measure of healthcare spending. Conclusions/Significance: Between FY 1989 and 2008 the California Tobacco Program cost $2.4 billion and led to cumulative NIPA healthcare expenditure savings of $134 (SE $30.5) billion.

Suggested Citation

  • James Lightwood & Stanton A Glantz, 2013. "The Effect of the California Tobacco Control Program on Smoking Prevalence, Cigarette Consumption, and Healthcare Costs: 1989–2008," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0047145
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0047145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0047145
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0047145&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0047145?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2014. "Optimal estimation of cointegrated systems with irrelevant instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 210-224.
    2. Baltagi, Badi H. & Moscone, Francesco, 2010. "Health care expenditure and income in the OECD reconsidered: Evidence from panel data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 804-811, July.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Michael Marlow, 2008. "Determinants of state tobacco-control expenditures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 831-839.
    5. Keeler, Theodore E. & Hu, Teh-Wei & Barnett, Paul G. & Manning, Williard G., 1993. "Taxation, regulation, and addiction: A demand function for cigarettes based on time-series evidence," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, April.
    6. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    7. Craig Gallet, 2004. "The efficacy of state-level antismoking laws: Demand and supply considerations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 404-412, September.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    9. James M Lightwood & Alexis Dinno & Stanton A Glantz, 2008. "Effect of the California Tobacco Control Program on Personal Health Care Expenditures," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(8), pages 1-9, August.
    10. Craig A. Gallet & John A. List, 2003. "Cigarette demand: a meta‐analysis of elasticities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(10), pages 821-835, October.
    11. Lightwood, James & Glantz, Stanton, 2011. "Effect of the Arizona tobacco control program on cigarette consumption and healthcare expenditures," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 166-172, January.
    12. Teh‐Wei Hu & Qui‐Fang Ren & Theodore E. Keeler & Joan Bartlett, 1995. "The demand for cigarettes in california and behavioural risk factors," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 7-14, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John A Tauras & Xin Xu & Jidong Huang & Brian King & S Rene Lavinghouze & Karla S Sneegas & Frank J Chaloupka, 2018. "State tobacco control expenditures and tax paid cigarette sales," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Michael V Maciosek & Amy B LaFrance & Ann W St. Claire & Paula A Keller & Zack Xu & Barbara A Schillo, 2020. "The 20-year impact of tobacco price and tobacco control expenditure increases in Minnesota, 1998-2017," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lightwood, James & Glantz, Stanton, 2011. "Effect of the Arizona tobacco control program on cigarette consumption and healthcare expenditures," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 166-172, January.
    2. Nicholas Apergis & Rajeev Goel & James Payne, 2014. "Dynamics of U.S. State Cigarette Consumption: Evidence from Panel Error Correction Modeling," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 3-20, March.
    3. Jungbin Hwang & Gonzalo Valdés, 2020. "Low Frequency Cointegrating Regression in the Presence of Local to Unity Regressors and Unknown Form of Serial Dependence," Working papers 2020-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2020.
    4. Leah K. Lakdawala & David Simon, 2016. "The Intergenerational Consequences of Tobacco Policy," Working papers 2016-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Ploeg, 2013. "Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(5), pages 827-866, October.
    6. Gunnar Bårdsen & Niels Haldrup, 2006. "A Gaussian IV estimator of cointegrating relations," Economics Working Papers 2006-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Sofien Tiba & Mohamed Frikha, 2020. "Africa Is Rich, Africans Are Poor! A Blessing or Curse: An Application of Cointegration Techniques," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(1), pages 114-139, March.
    8. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    9. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao & Dag Tjøstheim, 2017. "A New Class of Bivariate Threshold Cointegration Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 288-305, April.
    10. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    11. Herzer Dierk, 2022. "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: A Critical Review of the Literature and New Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 1-55, April.
    12. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S Hiremath, 2020. "Do external commercial borrowings and financial development affect exports?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1796269-179, January.
    13. Bagnai, Alberto & Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander, 2015. "Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 41-50.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    15. Jarko Fidrmuc & Sylvia Kaufmann & Andreas Resch, 2008. "Structural breaks in Austrian foreign trade with Eastern Europe during the early 1970s," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(5), pages 465-479, December.
    16. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Abraham Ayobamiji Awosusi & Seun Damola Oladipupo & Ephraim Bonah Agyekum & Arunkumar Jayakumar & Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar, 2021. "Dominance of Fossil Fuels in Japan’s National Energy Mix and Implications for Environmental Sustainability," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Dutrénit, Gabriela & Natera, José Miguel & Puchet Anyul, Martín & Vera-Cruz, Alexandre O., 2019. "Development profiles and accumulation of technological capabilities in Latin America," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 396-412.
    18. Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The demand for new housing in Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 62-74.
    19. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    20. Oludele Emmanuel Folarin, 2019. "Financial reforms and industrialisation: evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 21(1), pages 166-189, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0047145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.