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The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest

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  • Geoffroy Berthelot
  • Valérie Thibault
  • Muriel Tafflet
  • Sylvie Escolano
  • Nour El Helou
  • Xavier Jouven
  • Olivier Hermine
  • Jean-François Toussaint

Abstract

World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength performances. Analysis and prediction of man's physiological boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR established for all quantifiable official contests since the first Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy (mean adjusted r2 values = 0.91±0.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human species' physiological frontiers will be reached in one generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may also alter the Olympic motto and spirit.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffroy Berthelot & Valérie Thibault & Muriel Tafflet & Sylvie Escolano & Nour El Helou & Xavier Jouven & Olivier Hermine & Jean-François Toussaint, 2008. "The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(2), pages 1-5, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0001552
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001552
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Weia Reinboud, 2004. "Linear models can't keep up with sport gender gap," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7014), pages 147-147, November.
    2. Andrew J. Tatem & Carlos A. Guerra & Peter M. Atkinson & Simon I. Hay, 2004. "Momentous sprint at the 2156 Olympics?," Nature, Nature, vol. 431(7008), pages 525-525, September.
    3. Paul Steven Miller, 2006. "The computiful game," Nature, Nature, vol. 441(7094), pages 784-784, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. John H. J. Einmahl & Sander G. W. R. Smeets, 2011. "Ultimate 100‐m world records through extreme‐value theory," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 32-42, February.
    2. Alison K. Heather, 2022. "Transwoman Elite Athletes: Their Extra Percentage Relative to Female Physiology," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-12, July.
    3. Bernd Frick, 2011. "Gender Differences in Competitive Orientations: Empirical Evidence from Ultramarathon Running," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 317-340, June.
    4. Frevel, Nicolas & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2022. "The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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