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Considering the Case for Biodiversity Cycles: Re-Examining the Evidence for Periodicity in the Fossil Record

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  • Bruce S Lieberman
  • Adrian L Melott

Abstract

We re-examine the evidence for a 62 million year (Myr) periodicity in biodiversity throughout the Phanerozoic history of animal life reported by [1], as well as related questions of periodicity in origination and extinction. We find that the signal is robust against variations in methods of analysis, and is based on fluctuations in the Paleozoic and a substantial part of the Mesozoic. Examination of origination and extinction is somewhat ambiguous, with results depending upon procedure. Origination and extinction intensity as defined by [1] may be affected by an artifact at 27 Myr in the duration of stratigraphic intervals. Nevertheless, when a procedure free of this artifact is implemented, the 27 Myr periodicity appears in origination, suggesting that the artifact may ultimately be based on a signal in the data. A 62 Myr feature appears in extinction, when this same procedure is used. We conclude that evidence for a periodicity at 62 Myr is robust, and evidence for periodicity at approximately 27 Myr is also present, albeit more ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce S Lieberman & Adrian L Melott, 2007. "Considering the Case for Biodiversity Cycles: Re-Examining the Evidence for Periodicity in the Fossil Record," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0000759
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert A. Rohde & Richard A. Muller, 2005. "Cycles in fossil diversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 434(7030), pages 208-210, March.
    2. Guohui Ding & Jiuhong Kang & Qi Liu & Tieliu Shi & Gang Pei & Yixue Li, 2006. "Insights into the Coupling of Duplication Events and Macroevolution from an Age Profile of Animal Transmembrane Gene Families," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-7, August.
    3. James W. Kirchner & Anne Weil, 2000. "Delayed biological recovery from extinctions throughout the fossil record," Nature, Nature, vol. 404(6774), pages 177-180, March.
    4. James W. Kirchner, 2002. "Evolutionary speed limits inferred from the fossil record," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6867), pages 65-68, January.
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