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Impact of sars-cov-2 interventions on dengue transmission

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Listed:
  • Jue Tao Lim
  • Borame Sue Lee Dickens
  • Lawrence Zheng Xiong Chew
  • Esther Li Wen Choo
  • Joel Ruihan Koo
  • Joel Aik
  • Lee Ching Ng
  • Alex R Cook

Abstract

An estimated 105 million dengue infections occur per year across 120 countries, where traditional vector control is the primary control strategy to reduce contact between mosquito vectors and people. The ongoing sars-cov-2 pandemic has resulted in dramatic reductions in human mobility due to social distancing measures; the effects on vector-borne illnesses are not known. Here we examine the pre and post differences of dengue case counts in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, and estimate the effects of social distancing as a treatment effect whilst adjusting for temporal confounders. We found that social distancing is expected to lead to 4.32 additional cases per 100,000 individuals in Thailand per month, which equates to 170 more cases per month in the Bangkok province (95% CI: 100–242) and 2008 cases in the country as a whole (95% CI: 1170–2846). Social distancing policy estimates for Thailand were also found to be robust to model misspecification, and variable addition and omission. Conversely, no significant impact on dengue transmission was found in Singapore or Malaysia. Across country disparities in social distancing policy effects on reported dengue cases are reasoned to be driven by differences in workplace-residence structure, with an increase in transmission risk of arboviruses from social distancing primarily through heightened exposure to vectors in elevated time spent at residences, demonstrating the need to understand the effects of location on dengue transmission risk under novel population mixing conditions such as those under social distancing policies.Author summary: Significant healthcare burdens arise from dengue and traditional vector control is the primary control strategy to reduce dengue transmission potential. The ongoing sars-cov-2 pandemic has resulted in dramatic reductions in human mobility due to social distancing measures; the effects on vector-borne illnesses are not known. This paper examines the pre and post differences of dengue case counts in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, and estimate the effects of social distancing as a treatment effect whilst accounting for temporal confounders. We found that social distancing is expected to lead to an increase in the number of cases in Thailand, with the largest increase arising from Bangkok province. Social distancing policy estimates for Thailand were also found to be robust in sensitivity analysis. Conversely, no significant impact on dengue transmission was found in Singapore or Malaysia. Across country disparities in social distancing policy effects on reported dengue cases are reasoned to be driven by differences in workplace-residence structure, with an increase in transmission risk of arboviruses from social distancing primarily through heightened exposure to vectors in elevated time spent at residences, demonstrating the need to understand the effects of location on dengue transmission risk under novel population mixing conditions such as those under social distancing policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jue Tao Lim & Borame Sue Lee Dickens & Lawrence Zheng Xiong Chew & Esther Li Wen Choo & Joel Ruihan Koo & Joel Aik & Lee Ching Ng & Alex R Cook, 2020. "Impact of sars-cov-2 interventions on dengue transmission," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0008719
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008719
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    2. Jue Tao Lim & Borame Sue Dickens & Sun Haoyang & Ng Lee Ching & Alex R Cook, 2020. "Inference on dengue epidemics with Bayesian regime switching models," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Catherine Hausman & David S. Rapson, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 533-552, October.
    4. Donald S Shepard & Eduardo A Undurraga & Yara A Halasa, 2013. "Economic and Disease Burden of Dengue in Southeast Asia," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, February.
    5. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, February.
    6. Jonathan Reuter & Eric Zitzewitz, 2010. "How Much Does Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," NBER Working Papers 16329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hai-Yan Xu & Xiuju Fu & Lionel Kim Hock Lee & Stefan Ma & Kee Tai Goh & Jiancheng Wong & Mohamed Salahuddin Habibullah & Gary Kee Khoon Lee & Tian Kuay Lim & Paul Anantharajah Tambyah & Chin Leong Lim, 2014. "Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-11, May.
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    1. Madia, Joan E. & Moscone, Francesco & Nicodemo, Catia, 2023. "Informal care, older people, and COVID-19: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 468-488.

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