Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp)

Background: A relatively simple life history allows us to derive an expression for the extinction probability of populations of tsetse, vectors of African sleeping sickness. We present the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability, to offer key insights into factors affecting the control or eradication of tsetse populations. Methods: We represent tsetse population growth as a branching process, and derive closed form estimates of population extinction from that model. Statistical and mathematical techniques are used to analyse the uncertainties in estimating extinction probability, and the sensitivity of the extinction probability to changes in input parameters representing the natural life history and vital dynamics of tsetse populations. Results: For fixed values of input parameters, the sensitivity of extinction probability depends on the baseline parameter values. Extinction probability is most sensitive to the probability that a female is inseminated by a fertile male when daily pupal mortality is low, whereas the extinction probability is most sensitive to daily mortality rate for adult females when daily pupal mortality, and extinction probabilities, are high. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis show that daily mortality rate for adult females has the highest impact on the extinction probability. Conclusions: The high correlation between extinction probability and daily female adult mortality gives a strong argument that control techniques which increase daily female adult mortality may be the single most effective means of ensuring eradication of tsetse population. Author summary: Tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) are vectors of African trypanosomiasis, a deadly disease commonly called sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in livestock. The relatively simple life history of tsetse enabled us to model its population growth as a stochastic branching process. We derived a closed-form expression for the probability that a population of tsetse goes extinct, as a function of death, birth, development and insemination rates in female tsetse. We analyzed the sensitivity of the extinction probability to the different input parameters, in a bid to identify parameters with the highest impact on extinction probability. This information can, potentially, inform policy direction for tsetse control/elimination. In all the scenarios we considered for the global sensitivity analysis, the daily mortality rate for adult females had the greatest impact on the magnitude of extinction probability. Our findings suggest that the mortality rate in the adult females is the weakest link in tsetse life history, and this fact should be exploited in achieving tsetse population control, or even eradication.