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Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Donal Bisanzio
  • Felipe Dzul-Manzanilla
  • Hector Gomez-Dantés
  • Norma Pavia-Ruz
  • Thomas J Hladish
  • Audrey Lenhart
  • Jorge Palacio-Vargas
  • Jesus F González Roldan
  • Fabian Correa-Morales
  • Gustavo Sánchez-Tejeda
  • Pablo Kuri Morales
  • Pablo Manrique-Saide
  • Ira M Longini
  • M Elizabeth Halloran
  • Gonzalo M Vazquez-Prokopec

Abstract

Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008–2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W>0.63; p

Suggested Citation

  • Donal Bisanzio & Felipe Dzul-Manzanilla & Hector Gomez-Dantés & Norma Pavia-Ruz & Thomas J Hladish & Audrey Lenhart & Jorge Palacio-Vargas & Jesus F González Roldan & Fabian Correa-Morales & Gustavo S, 2018. "Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0006298
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006298
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