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Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver J Brady
  • Peter W Gething
  • Samir Bhatt
  • Jane P Messina
  • John S Brownstein
  • Anne G Hoen
  • Catherine L Moyes
  • Andrew W Farlow
  • Thomas W Scott
  • Simon I Hay

Abstract

Background: Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/Principal Findings: A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. Conclusion: The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work. Author Summary: Previous attempts to map the current global distribution of dengue virus transmission have produced variable results, particularly in Africa, reflecting the lack of accuracy in both diagnostic and locational information of reported dengue cases. In this study, instead of excluding these less informed points we included them with appropriate uncertainty alongside other diverse evidence forms. After assembling a comprehensive database of different evidence types, a weighted scoring system calculated “evidence consensus” for each country a continuous measure of the certainty of dengue presence or absence when considering the full aggregate of evidence. The resulting map and analysis helped highlight important evidence gaps that underlie uncertainties in the current distribution of dengue. We also show the importance of local knowledge through incorporating questionnairebased responses that can help add clarity in uncertain regions. This analysis showed that presence/absence maps do not sufficiently highlight the uncertainties in the evidence base used to construct them. Mapping by evidence consensus not only encourages greater data inclusion, but it also better illustrates the current global distribution of dengue. Consensus mapping is thus ideal for a range of neglected tropical diseases where the evidence base is incomplete or less diagnostically reliable.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver J Brady & Peter W Gething & Samir Bhatt & Jane P Messina & John S Brownstein & Anne G Hoen & Catherine L Moyes & Andrew W Farlow & Thomas W Scott & Simon I Hay, 2012. "Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(8), pages 1-15, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0001760
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001760
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jamison, D.T. & Mosley, W.H., 1991. "Disease control priorities in developing countries: Health policy responses to epidemiological change," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 81(1), pages 15-22.
    2. Simon I Hay & Carlos A Guerra & Peter W Gething & Anand P Patil & Andrew J Tatem & Abdisalan M Noor & Caroline W Kabaria & Bui H Manh & Iqbal R F Elyazar & Simon Brooker & David L Smith & Rana A Moyee, 2009. "A World Malaria Map: Plasmodium falciparum Endemicity in 2007," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emily Ying Yang Chan & Eugene Siu Kai Lo & Zhe Huang & Holly Ching Yu Lam & May Pui-shan Yeung & Kin-on Kwok & Kevin Kei Ching Hung & Shelly Lap-ah Tse, 2021. "Sociodemographic predictors of knowledge, mosquito bite patterns and protective behaviors concerning vector borne disease: The case of dengue fever in Chinese subtropical city, Hong Kong," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Emmanuelle Sylvestre & Clarisse Joachim & Elsa Cécilia-Joseph & Guillaume Bouzillé & Boris Campillo-Gimenez & Marc Cuggia & André Cabié, 2022. "Data-driven methods for dengue prediction and surveillance using real-world and Big Data: A systematic review," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Pengfei Jia & Lu Liang & Xiaoyue Tan & Jin Chen & Xiang Chen, 2019. "Potential effects of heat waves on the population dynamics of the dengue mosquito Aedes albopictus," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, July.
    4. Matthew P Edgington & Luke S Alphey, 2018. "Population dynamics of engineered underdominance and killer-rescue gene drives in the control of disease vectors," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-28, March.
    5. Olaf Horstick & Amy C Morrison, 2014. "Dengue Disease Surveillance: Improving Data for Dengue Control," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-2, November.
    6. Raphaël M Zellweger & Jorge Cano & Morgan Mangeas & François Taglioni & Alizé Mercier & Marc Despinoy & Christophe E Menkès & Myrielle Dupont-Rouzeyrol & Birgit Nikolay & Magali Teurlai, 2017. "Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue transmission in an urban setting: An ecological study in Nouméa, New Caledonia," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Christian E Gunning & Kenichi W Okamoto & Helvio Astete & Gissella M Vasquez & Erik Erhardt & Clara Del Aguila & Raul Pinedo & Roldan Cardenas & Carlos Pacheco & Enrique Chalco & Hugo Rodriguez-Ferruc, 2018. "Efficacy of Aedes aegypti control by indoor Ultra Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in Iquitos, Peru," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, April.

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