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Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: Prognostic Model Research

Author

Listed:
  • Ewout W Steyerberg
  • Karel G M Moons
  • Danielle A van der Windt
  • Jill A Hayden
  • Pablo Perel
  • Sara Schroter
  • Richard D Riley
  • Harry Hemingway
  • Douglas G Altman
  • for the PROGRESS Group

Abstract

In this article, the third in the PROGRESS series on prognostic factor research, Sara Schroter and colleagues review how prognostic models are developed and validated, and then address how prognostic models are assessed for their impact on practice and patient outcomes, illustrating these ideas with examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewout W Steyerberg & Karel G M Moons & Danielle A van der Windt & Jill A Hayden & Pablo Perel & Sara Schroter & Richard D Riley & Harry Hemingway & Douglas G Altman & for the PROGRESS Group, 2013. "Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: Prognostic Model Research," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-9, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1001381
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001381
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew D A C Smith & Kate Tilling & Debbie A Lawlor & Scott M Nelson, 2015. "External Validation and Calibration of IVFpredict: A National Prospective Cohort Study of 130,960 In Vitro Fertilisation Cycles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Phung Khanh Lam & Dong Thi Hoai Tam & Nguyen Minh Dung & Nguyen Thi Hanh Tien & Nguyen Tan Thanh Kieu & Cameron Simmons & Jeremy Farrar & Bridget Wills & Marcel Wolbers, 2015. "A Prognostic Model for Development of Profound Shock among Children Presenting with Dengue Shock Syndrome," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Alwin Schierenberg & Margaretha C Minnaard & Rogier M Hopstaken & Alma C van de Pol & Berna D L Broekhuizen & Niek J de Wit & Johannes B Reitsma & Saskia F van Vugt & Aleida W Graffelman & Hasse Melby, 2016. "External Validation of Prediction Models for Pneumonia in Primary Care Patients with Lower Respiratory Tract Infection: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Stephana J Cherak & Andrea Soo & Kyla N Brown & E Wesley Ely & Henry T Stelfox & Kirsten M Fiest, 2020. "Development and validation of delirium prediction model for critically ill adults parameterized to ICU admission acuity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Nath Adulkasem & Phichayut Phinyo & Jiraporn Khorana & Dumnoensun Pruksakorn & Theerachai Apivatthakakul, 2021. "Development of Clinical Prediction Rules for One-Year Postoperative Functional Outcome in Patients with Intertrochanteric Fractures: The Intertrochanteric Fracture Ambulatory Prediction (IT-AP) Tool," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Jia You & Yu Guo & Yi Zhang & Ju-Jiao Kang & Lin-Bo Wang & Jian-Feng Feng & Wei Cheng & Jin-Tai Yu, 2023. "Plasma proteomic profiles predict individual future health risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Jiakun Jiang & Wei Yang & Erin M. Schnellinger & Stephen E. Kimmel & Wensheng Guo, 2023. "Dynamic logistic state space prediction model for clinical decision making," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 73-85, March.
    8. Jakob Steinfeldt & Benjamin Wild & Thore Buergel & Maik Pietzner & Julius Upmeier zu Belzen & Andre Vauvelle & Stefan Hegselmann & Spiros Denaxas & Harry Hemingway & Claudia Langenberg & Ulf Landmesse, 2024. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Medical history predicts phenome-wide disease onset and enables the rapid response to emerging health threats," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Todd J. Levy & Kevin Coppa & Jinxuan Cang & Douglas P. Barnaby & Marc D. Paradis & Stuart L. Cohen & Alex Makhnevich & David Klaveren & David M. Kent & Karina W. Davidson & Jamie S. Hirsch & Theodoros, 2022. "Development and validation of self-monitoring auto-updating prognostic models of survival for hospitalized COVID-19 patients," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Mario Dioguardi & Francesca Spirito & Diego Sovereto & Mario Alovisi & Giuseppe Troiano & Riccardo Aiuto & Daniele Garcovich & Vito Crincoli & Luigi Laino & Angela Pia Cazzolla & Giorgia Apollonia Cal, 2022. "MicroRNA-21 Expression as a Prognostic Biomarker in Oral Cancer: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-12, March.
    11. Igor O Korolev & Laura L Symonds & Andrea C Bozoki & Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, 2016. "Predicting Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Clinical, MRI, and Plasma Biomarkers via Probabilistic Pattern Classification," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-25, February.
    12. Catherine Beauregard-Paultre & Claire Nour Abou Chakra & Allison McGeer & Annie-Claude Labbé & Andrew E Simor & Wayne Gold & Matthew P Muller & Jeff Powis & Kevin Katz & Suzanne M Cadarette & Jacques , 2019. "External validation of clinical prediction rules for complications and mortality following Clostridioides difficile infection," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Julius Sim & Lucy Teece & Martin S Dennis & Christine Roffe & SOࠢS Study Team, 2016. "Validation and Recalibration of Two Multivariable Prognostic Models for Survival and Independence in Acute Stroke," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, May.
    14. François Luthi & Olivier Deriaz & Philippe Vuistiner & Cyrille Burrus & Roger Hilfiker, 2014. "Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(4), pages 1-11, April.
    15. Daan Nieboer & Tjeerd van der Ploeg & Ewout W Steyerberg, 2016. "Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-10, February.

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