Genetic drift and selection in many-allele range expansions

We experimentally and numerically investigate the evolutionary dynamics of four competing strains of E. coli with differing expansion velocities in radially expanding colonies. We compare experimental measurements of the average fraction, correlation functions between strains, and the relative rates of genetic domain wall annihilations and coalescences to simulations modeling the population as a one-dimensional ring of annihilating and coalescing random walkers with deterministic biases due to selection. The simulations reveal that the evolutionary dynamics can be collapsed onto master curves governed by three essential parameters: (1) an expansion length beyond which selection dominates over genetic drift; (2) a characteristic angular correlation describing the size of genetic domains; and (3) a dimensionless constant quantifying the interplay between a colony’s curvature at the frontier and its selection length scale. We measure these parameters with a new technique that precisely measures small selective differences between spatially competing strains and show that our simulations accurately predict the dynamics without additional fitting. Our results suggest that the random walk model can act as a useful predictive tool for describing the evolutionary dynamics of range expansions composed of an arbitrary number of genotypes with different fitnesses.Author summary: Population expansions occur naturally during the spread of invasive species and have played a role in our evolutionary history when humans migrated out of Africa. We use a colony of non-motile bacteria expanding into unoccupied, nutrient-rich territory on an agar plate as a model system to explore how an expanding population’s spatial structure impacts its evolutionary dynamics. Spatial structure is present in expanding microbial colonies because daughter cells migrate only a small distance away from their mothers each generation. Generally, the constituents of expansions occurring in nature and in the lab have different genetic compositions (genotypes, or alleles if a single gene differs), each instilling different fitnesses, which compete to proliferate at the frontier. Here, we show that a random-walk model can accurately predict the dynamics of four expanding strains of E. coli with different fitnesses; each strain represents a competing allele. Our results can be extended to describe any number of competing genotypes with different fitnesses in a naturally occurring expansion as long as the underlying motility of the organisms does not cause our model to break down. Our model can also be used to precisely measure small selective differences between spatially competing genotypes in controlled laboratory settings.