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A Note on Forecasting Daily Peruvian Stock Market VolatilityRisk Using Intraday Returns

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  • Mauricio Zevallos

    (Department of Statistics, University of Campinas, Brazil)

Abstract

n this paper I present a model to forecast the daily Value at Risk (VaR) of the Peruvian stock market (measured through the general index of the Lima Stock Exchange: the IGBVL) based on intraday (high-frequency) data. Daily volatility is estimated using realised volatility and I adopted a regression quantile approach to calculate one-step predicted VaR values. The results suggest that the realised volatility is a useful measure to explain the Peruvian stock market volatility and I obtained sound results using quantile regression for risk estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Zevallos, 2019. "A Note on Forecasting Daily Peruvian Stock Market VolatilityRisk Using Intraday Returns," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(84), pages 94-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:2019:i:84:p:94-101
    as

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    File URL: https://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/economia/article/view/21503/21130
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    High frequency data; Quantile Regression; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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