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The COVID-19 effect on the Paris agreement

Author

Listed:
  • John M. Reilly

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Y.-H. Henry Chen

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Henry D. Jacoby

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

The pandemic and efforts to control it are causing sharp reductions in global economic activity and associated fossil energy use, with unknown influence on longer-term efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Climate Agreement. To explore this effect, estimates of economic recession and recovery in near-term months are extended to cover a return to full employment in future years, to be compared with an estimate of growth had COVID-19 not occurred. On the assumption that the Paris emissions pledges for 2020 will be met in any case, projection of global emissions with and without the pandemic show that, through its growth impact alone, it will yield only a small effect on emissions in 2030 and beyond. Other COVID legacies may include residual influences in patterns of consumption and travel, and the direction of recovery funds to low carbon investments. Most important, however, will be the effect of the economic shocks on the willingness of nations to meet (or augment) their existing Paris emissions pledges. The main effect of the pandemic on the threat of climate change, therefore, will be not its growth impact but its influence on national commitments to action.

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Reilly & Y.-H. Henry Chen & Henry D. Jacoby, 2021. "The COVID-19 effect on the Paris agreement," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-4, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:8:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-020-00698-2
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-020-00698-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engen, Eric M. & Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "Taxation and Economic Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 617-642, December.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748.
    3. Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M. & Morris, Jennifer F. & Babiker, Mustafa H., 2016. "Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 867-883.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2020. "Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021," Reports 56351, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Congressional Budget Office, 2020. "The Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output," Reports 56537, Congressional Budget Office.
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    2. Piotr Jurga & Efstratios Loizou & Stelios Rozakis, 2021. "Comparing Bioeconomy Potential at National vs. Regional Level Employing Input-Output Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Salman, Muhammad & Long, Xingle & Wang, Guimei & Zha, Donglan, 2022. "Paris climate agreement and global environmental efficiency: New evidence from fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Xiao Yu & Yingdong Xu & Jian Zhang & Yue Sun, 2022. "The Synergy Green Innovation Effect of Green Innovation Subsidies and Carbon Taxes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-27, March.

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