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Social markers of a pandemic: modeling the association between cultural norms and COVID-19 spread data

Author

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  • Máté Kapitány-Fövény

    (Semmelweis University
    Nyírő Gyula National Institute of Psychiatry and Addictions)

  • Mihály Sulyok

    (Eberhard Karls University
    Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen Liebermeisterstraße 8)

Abstract

While cross-national differences of the epidemic curves of COVID-19 become evident, social markers of such variability are still unexplored. In order to investigate how certain social norms may underlie the heterogeneity of the spread of infections, global social data (including cultural values, indices of prosperity, and government effectiveness) and covariates (such as climate zone, economic indicator, and healthcare access and quality) of early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 were collected. Model-based clustering and random forest regression analysis were applied to identify distinct groups of societies and explore predictors of COVID-19 doubling time. Clustering revealed four groups: (1) reserved; (2) drifting; (3) assertive; and (4) compliant societies. Compliant societies from dry climate zones showed the highest doubling times in spite of increased population densities. Most relevant predictors of doubling time were population density, freedom of assembly and association, and agency, underlining the importance of social factors in the hetereogeneity of COVID-19 transmission rates. Our cluster typology might contribute to the explanation of cross-national variability in early transmission dynamics of highly infectious diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Máté Kapitány-Fövény & Mihály Sulyok, 2020. "Social markers of a pandemic: modeling the association between cultural norms and COVID-19 spread data," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:7:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-020-00590-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-020-00590-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lowcock, E.C. & Rosella, L.C. & Foisy, J. & McGeer, A. & Crowcroft, N., 2012. "The social determinants of health and pandemic h1n1 2009 influenza severity," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(8), pages 51-58.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steven Stillman & Mirco Tonin, 2022. "Communities and testing for COVID-19," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(4), pages 617-625, June.
    2. Roxanne C. Keynejad & H. Manisha Yapa & Poushali Ganguli, 2021. "Achieving the sustainable development goals: investing in early career interdisciplinarity," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-5, December.
    3. Hannah Howland & Vadim Keyser, 2023. "Built environment as interface: a relation-based framework for the intersections between built, biotic, social, and health processes during COVID-19 and beyond," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.

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