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On revolutions

Author

Listed:
  • Armand M. Leroi

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Ben Lambert

    (University of Oxford
    Imperial College London)

  • Matthias Mauch

    (Queen Mary University)

  • Marina Papadopoulou

    (Imperial College London
    University of Groningen)

  • Sophia Ananiadou

    (University of Manchester)

  • Staffan I. Lindberg

    (Gothenburg University
    Gothenburg University)

  • Patrik Lindenfors

    (Gothenburg University
    Institute for Future Studies
    Stockholm University)

Abstract

Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as “revolutions”, and, though they have identified many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here, we present a method to identify revolutions based on a measure of multivariate rate of change called Foote novelty. We define revolutions as those periods of time when the value of this measure is, by a non-parametric test, shown to significantly exceed the background rate. Our method also identifies conservative periods when the rate of change is unusually low. We apply it to several quantitative data sets that capture long-term political, social and cultural changes and, in some of them, identify revolutions — both well known and not. Our method is general and can be applied to any phenomenon captured by multivariate time series data of sufficient quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Armand M. Leroi & Ben Lambert & Matthias Mauch & Marina Papadopoulou & Sophia Ananiadou & Staffan I. Lindberg & Patrik Lindenfors, 2020. "On revolutions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-019-0371-1
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-019-0371-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip Preuss & Ruprecht Puchstein & Holger Dette, 2015. "Detection of Multiple Structural Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(510), pages 654-668, June.
    2. Anna Bezanson, 1922. "The Early Use of the Term Industrial Revolution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 36(2), pages 343-349.
    3. Luke Fowler & Tonya T. Neaves & Jessica N. Terman & Arthur G. Cosby, 2017. "Cultural Penetration and Punctuated Policy Change: Explaining the Evolution of U.S. Energy Policy," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 34(4), pages 559-577, July.
    4. Peter Tschmuck, 2006. "Creativity and Innovation in the Music Industry," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-1-4020-4275-1, March.
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