IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/marecl/v19y2017i2d10.1057_s41278-016-0054-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging

Author

Listed:
  • Sang-Yoon Lee

    (INHA University)

  • Hyunwoo Lim

    (INHA University)

  • Hwa-Joong Kim

    (INHA University)

Abstract

This paper aims to provide a practical method for forecasting potential container cargo volume that can be induced by a port development project on a container transport network by combining port choice and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The entrance channel improvement plan for Incheon New Port in South Korea is used as a case study. Based on the stated preference data collected from domestic shippers, a discrete choice analysis is performed to estimate the future market share of three major ports in South Korea: Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. The estimated market share of Incheon New Port is used to forecast its future container volume derived by the ARIMA model and the potential port development scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Sang-Yoon Lee & Hyunwoo Lim & Hwa-Joong Kim, 2017. "Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(2), pages 296-314, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0054-4
    DOI: 10.1057/s41278-016-0054-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41278-016-0054-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41278-016-0054-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jin-Young Kim, 2014. "Port user typology and representations of port choice behavior: A Q-methodological study," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 16(2), pages 165-187, June.
    2. T C Lirn & H A Thanopoulou & M J Beynon & A K C Beresford, 2004. "An Application of AHP on Transhipment Port Selection: A Global Perspective," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 6(1), pages 70-91, March.
    3. Simme Veldman & Lorena Garcia-Alonso & José Ángel Vallejo-Pinto, 2011. "Determinants of container port choice in Spain," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 509-522, January.
    4. Malchow, Matthew B. & Kanafani, Adib, 2004. "A disaggregate analysis of port selection," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 317-337, July.
    5. Loo Hay Lee & Ek Peng Chew & Leng Siang Lee, 2006. "Multicommodity network flow model for Asia's container ports," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 387-402, September.
    6. Jose Tongzon & Lavina Sawant, 2007. "Port choice in a competitive environment: from the shipping lines' perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 477-492.
    7. Mateus Magala & Adrian Sammons, 2008. "A New Approach to Port Choice Modelling," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 10(1-2), pages 9-34, March.
    8. An-Shuen Nir & Kuang Lin & Gin-Shuh Liang, 2003. "Port choice behaviour--from the perspective of the shipper," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 165-173, January.
    9. Tavasszy, Lóránt & Minderhoud, Michiel & Perrin, Jean-François & Notteboom, Theo, 2011. "A strategic network choice model for global container flows: specification, estimation and application," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1163-1172.
    10. Dong-Wook Song & Ki-Tae Yeo, 2004. "A Competitive Analysis of Chinese Container Ports Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 6(1), pages 34-52, March.
    11. Hwa-Joong Kim & Young-Tae Chang & Paul T.-W. Lee & Sung-Ho Shin & Min-Jeong Kim, 2008. "Optimizing the transportation of international container cargoes in Korea," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 103-122, February.
    12. Piyush Tiwari & Hidekazu Itoh & Masayuki Doi, 2003. "Shippers' Port and Carrier Selection Behaviour in China: A Discrete Choice Analysis," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 5(1), pages 23-39, March.
    13. Chang, Young-Tae & Lee, Sang-Yoon & Tongzon, Jose L., 2008. "Port selection factors by shipping lines: Different perspectives between trunk liners and feeder service providers," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 877-885, November.
    14. Tongzon, Jose L., 2009. "Port choice and freight forwarders," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 186-195, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Wagner & Izabela Kotowska & Michał Pluciński, 2022. "The Impact of Improving the Quality of the Port’s Infrastructure on the Shippers’ Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Di Zhang & Xinyuan Li & Chengpeng Wan & Jie Man, 2024. "A novel hybrid deep-learning framework for medium-term container throughput forecasting: an application to China’s Guangzhou, Qingdao and Shanghai hub ports," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(1), pages 44-73, March.
    3. M. Milenković & N. Milosavljevic & N. Bojović & S. Val, 2021. "Container flow forecasting through neural networks based on metaheuristics," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 965-997, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flitsch, Verena & Brümmerstedt, Katrin, 2015. "Freight Transport Modelling of Container Hinterland Supply Chains," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Blecker, Thorsten & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Operational Excellence in Logistics and Supply Chains: Optimization Methods, Data-driven Approaches and Security Insights. Proceedings of the Hamburg , volume 22, pages 233-266, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    2. Vega, Laura & Cantillo, Víctor & Arellana, Julián, 2019. "Assessing the impact of major infrastructure projects on port choice decision: The Colombian case," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 132-148.
    3. Julián Martínez Moya & María Feo Valero, 2017. "Port choice in container market: a literature review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 300-321, May.
    4. Steven, Adams B. & Corsi, Thomas M., 2012. "Choosing a port: An analysis of containerized imports into the US," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 881-895.
    5. Felipe Lobo Umbelino Souza & Cira Souza Pitombo & Dong Yang, 2021. "Port choice in Brazil: a qualitative research related to in-depth interviews," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Sedat Baştuğ & Hercules Haralambides & Soner Esmer & Enes Eminoğlu, 2021. "Port competitiveness: Do container terminal operators and liner shipping companies see eye to eye?," Post-Print hal-04046233, HAL.
    7. Javier Cantillo & Víctor Cantillo-García & Víctor Cantillo & Julián Arellana, 2023. "Port choice using aggregate open data: an application to Colombian port zones," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(3), pages 520-548, September.
    8. Tavasszy, Lóránt & Minderhoud, Michiel & Perrin, Jean-François & Notteboom, Theo, 2011. "A strategic network choice model for global container flows: specification, estimation and application," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1163-1172.
    9. M. A. Mueller & B. Wiegmans & J. H. R. Duin, 2020. "The geography of container port choice: modelling the impact of hinterland changes on port choice," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 22(1), pages 26-52, March.
    10. Balci, Gökcay & Cetin, Ismail Bilge & Esmer, Soner, 2018. "An evaluation of competition and selection criteria between dry bulk terminals in Izmir," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 294-304.
    11. Akoh Fabien Yao & Maxime Sèbe & Laura Recuero Virto & Abdelhak Nassiri & Hervé Dumez, 2024. "The effect of LNG bunkering on port competitiveness using multilevel data analysis [L'effet du soutage par GNL sur la compétitivité des ports à l'aide de l'analyse de données à plusieurs niveaux]," Post-Print hal-04611804, HAL.
    12. Mingzhu Yu & Chung-Yee Lee & James Jixian Wang, 2017. "The regional port competition with different terminal competition intensity," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 659-688, December.
    13. Tapia, Rodrigo Javier & dos Santos Senna, Luiz Afonso & Larranaga, Ana Margarita & Cybis, Helena Beatriz Bettella, 2019. "Joint mode and port choice for soy production in Buenos Aires province, Argentina," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 100-118.
    14. Jiang, Jianlin & Lee, Loo Hay & Chew, Ek Peng & Gan, Chee Chun, 2015. "Port connectivity study: An analysis framework from a global container liner shipping network perspective," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 47-64.
    15. Feo-Valero, María & Martínez-Moya, Julián, 2022. "Shippers vs. freight forwarders: Do they differ in their port choice decisions? Evidence from the Spanish ceramic tile industry," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    16. Larranaga, Ana Margarita & Arellana, Julian & Senna, Luiz Afonso, 2017. "Encouraging intermodality: A stated preference analysis of freight mode choice in Rio Grande do Sul," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 202-211.
    17. Adolf K.Y. Ng & Zaili Yang & Stephen Cahoon & Paul T.W. Lee & Dago Alain Gohomene & Zaili l. Yang & Stephen Bonsal & Eleftherios Maistralis & Jin Wang & Kevin X. Li, 2016. "The Attractiveness of Ports in West Africa: Some Lessons from Shipping Lines' Port Selection," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 416-426, September.
    18. Martínez-Moya, Julián & Feo-Valero, María, 2022. "Do shippers’ characteristics influence port choice criteria? Capturing heterogeneity by using latent class models," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 96-105.
    19. Li, Shengchao & Cao, Xiaoshu & Liao, Wang & He, Yongquan, 2020. "Factors in the sea ports-of-entry and road ports-of-entry cross-border logistics route choice," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Su-Han Woo & Stephen Pettit & Anthony Beresford & Dong-Wook Kwak, 2012. "Seaport Research: A Decadal Analysis of Trends and Themes Since the 1980s," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 351-377, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0054-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.