IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v57y2006i12d10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • J D Griffiths

    (Cardiff University, South Glamorgan)

  • Z F Lawson

    (Cardiff University, South Glamorgan)

  • J E Williams

    (Cardiff University, South Glamorgan)

Abstract

Advances in recent treatments for HIV/AIDS patients have shown dramatic outcomes in extending the incubation period and AIDS survival time, while also providing significant improvements in the quality of patients' lives. A compartmental model is proposed to analyse the effects of the various treatment regimens which have been introduced. The results produced are in good agreement with routinely collected data relating to levels of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence in the UK homosexual population. Some parameter values within the model are obtained from surveys, census results, etc, but others are derived using a maximum likelihood estimation procedure. Finally, the model is used to project levels of incidence and prevalence over the next few years, and to investigate several possible scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • J D Griffiths & Z F Lawson & J E Williams, 2006. "Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(12), pages 1413-1424, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:12:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602120
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602120
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602120?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Griffiths, Jeff & Lowrie, Dawn & Williams, Janet, 2000. "An age-structured model for the AIDS epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Carla Rossi & Giuseppe Schinaia, 1998. "The Mover-Stayer Model for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Action," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 127-143, June.
    3. Caroline A. Sabin & Christine A. Lee & Andrew N. Phillips, 1994. "The Use of Backcalculation to Estimate the Prevalence of Severe Immunodeficiency Induced by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus in England and Wales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 157(1), pages 41-56, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. R M Lebcir & R A Atun & R J Coker, 2010. "System Dynamic simulation of treatment policies to address colliding epidemics of tuberculosis, drug resistant tuberculosis and injecting drug users driven HIV in Russia," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(8), pages 1238-1248, August.
    2. Lane, David & Husemann, Elke & Holland, Darren & Khaled, Abdul, 2019. "Understanding foodborne transmission mechanisms for Norovirus: A study for the UK's Food Standards Agency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 721-736.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanshu Wang & Hailiang Zhang, 2023. "Dynamical Analysis of an Age-Structured SVEIR Model with Imperfect Vaccine," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Fu, Bo & Wang, Wenbin & Shi, Xin, 2012. "A risk analysis based on a two-stage delayed diagnosis regression model with application to chronic disease progression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(3), pages 847-855.
    3. Ozgur M. Araz & Mayteé Cruz-Aponte & Fernando A. Wilson & Brock W. Hanisch & Ruth S. Margalit, 2022. "An Analytic Framework for Effective Public Health Program Design Using Correctional Facilities," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 113-128, January.
    4. Huiyu Xuan & Lida Xu & Lu Li, 2009. "A CA-based epidemic model for HIV/AIDS transmission with heterogeneity," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 81-99, April.
    5. Choudhury, Nishat Alam & Ramkumar, M. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Singh, Shalabh, 2023. "The role of operations and supply chain management during epidemics and pandemics: Potential and future research opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:12:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.