IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v157y1994i1p41-56.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Use of Backcalculation to Estimate the Prevalence of Severe Immunodeficiency Induced by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus in England and Wales

Author

Listed:
  • Caroline A. Sabin
  • Christine A. Lee
  • Andrew N. Phillips

Abstract

As patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) become more severely immunosuppressed, they are at increased risk of developing one of a number of opportunistic infections or lymphomas, which define them as suffering from the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). Estimates of the number of individuals who could benefit from antiretroviral treatment and prophylactic therapies against the main opportunistic infections are not readily available, as many individuals infected with HIV are asymptomatic and unaware of their infection. Using the method of backcalculation, we suggest that there are currently at least 2161 individuals with severe immunodeficiency but not AIDS in England and Wales. We demonstrate that this figure is sensitive to the choice of model for the severe immunodeficiency period and to the assumed effect of pre‐AIDS therapy. Using a definition of severe immunodeficiency based on a single CD4 count rather than two consecutive counts leads to substantially increased estimates of the prevalence of severe immunodeficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Caroline A. Sabin & Christine A. Lee & Andrew N. Phillips, 1994. "The Use of Backcalculation to Estimate the Prevalence of Severe Immunodeficiency Induced by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus in England and Wales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 157(1), pages 41-56, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:157:y:1994:i:1:p:41-56
    DOI: 10.2307/2983504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2983504
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2307/2983504?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J D Griffiths & Z F Lawson & J E Williams, 2006. "Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(12), pages 1413-1424, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:157:y:1994:i:1:p:41-56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.