IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v13y2017i1p25-36n3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian survival analysis of batsmen in Test cricket

Author

Listed:
  • Stevenson Oliver George

    (University of Auckland - Statistics, Auckland, New Zealand)

  • Brewer Brendon J.

    (University of Auckland - Statistics, Auckland, New Zealand)

Abstract

Cricketing knowledge tells us batting is more difficult early in a player’s innings but becomes easier as a player familiarizes themselves with the conditions. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian survival analysis method to predict the Test Match batting abilities for international cricketers. The model is applied in two stages, firstly to individual players, allowing us to quantify players’ initial and equilibrium batting abilities, and the rate of transition between the two. This is followed by implementing the model using a hierarchical structure, providing us with more general inference concerning a selected group of opening batsmen from New Zealand. The results indicate most players begin their innings playing with between only a quarter and half of their potential batting ability. Using the hierarchical structure we are able to make predictions for the batting abilities of the next opening batsman to debut for New Zealand. Additionally, we compare and identify players who excel in the role of opening the batting, which has practical implications in terms of batting order and team selection policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stevenson Oliver George & Brewer Brendon J., 2017. "Bayesian survival analysis of batsmen in Test cricket," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 25-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:13:y:2017:i:1:p:25-36:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2016-0090
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2016-0090
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jqas-2016-0090?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koulis Theodoro & Muthukumarana Saman & Briercliffe Creagh Dyson, 2014. "A Bayesian stochastic model for batting performance evaluation in one-day cricket," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Bracewell Paul J & Ruggiero Katya, 2009. "A Parametric Control Chart for Monitoring Individual Batting Performances in Cricket," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Alan C. Kimber & Alan R. Hansford, 1993. "A Statistical Analysis of Batting in Cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(3), pages 443-455, May.
    4. S R Clarke & J M Norman, 1999. "To run or not?: Some dynamic programming models in cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(5), pages 536-545, May.
    5. J M Norman & S R Clarke, 2010. "Optimal batting orders in cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(6), pages 980-986, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Santos-Fernandez Edgar & Wu Paul & Mengersen Kerrie L., 2019. "Bayesian statistics meets sports: a comprehensive review," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 289-312, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliver G. Stevenson & Brendon J. Brewer, 2021. "Finding your feet: A Gaussian process model for estimating the abilities of batsmen in test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(2), pages 481-506, March.
    2. Borooah Vani K & Mangan John E, 2010. "The "Bradman Class": An Exploration of Some Issues in the Evaluation of Batsmen for Test Matches, 1877-2006," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Sargent Jonathan RT & Bedford Anthony, 2012. "Using Conditional Estimates to Simulate In-Play Outcomes in Limited Overs Cricket," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Bracewell Paul J & Farhadieh Farinaz & Jowett Clint A & Forbes Don G. R. & Meyer Denny H, 2009. "Was Bradman Denied His Prime?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Chitresh Kumar & Girish Balasubramanian, 2023. "Comparative Analysis of Pitch Ratings in All Formats of Cricket," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 48(3), pages 307-324, August.
    6. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2015. "I Take Care of My Own: A Field Study on How Leadership Handles Conflict between Individual and Collective Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 414-419, May.
    7. Arnab Adhikari & Adrija Majumdar & Gaurav Gupta & Arnab Bisi, 2020. "An innovative super-efficiency data envelopment analysis, semi-variance, and Shannon-entropy-based methodology for player selection: evidence from cricket," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 284(1), pages 1-32, January.
    8. G D I Barr & B S Kantor, 2004. "A criterion for comparing and selecting batsmen in limited overs cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(12), pages 1266-1274, December.
    9. M Wright & N Hirotsu, 2003. "The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(3), pages 213-221, March.
    10. Yamini Nekkanti & Dibyojyoti Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Novel Performance Metrics to Evaluate the Duel Between a Batsman and a Bowler," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(2), pages 201-211, May.
    11. Manage Ananda B. W. & Mallawaarachchi Kumudu & Wijekularathna Kanchana, 2010. "Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves for Measuring the Quality of Decisions in Cricket," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, April.
    12. M B Wright, 2009. "50 years of OR in sport," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 161-168, May.
    13. Koulis Theodoro & Muthukumarana Saman & Briercliffe Creagh Dyson, 2014. "A Bayesian stochastic model for batting performance evaluation in one-day cricket," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, January.
    14. N Hirotsu & M Wright, 2003. "Determining the best strategy for changing the configuration of a football team," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 878-887, August.
    15. Santos-Fernandez Edgar & Wu Paul & Mengersen Kerrie L., 2019. "Bayesian statistics meets sports: a comprehensive review," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 289-312, December.
    16. Norton, Hugh & Gray, Steve & Faff, Robert, 2015. "Yes, one-day international cricket ‘in-play’ trading strategies can be profitable!," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 164-176.
    17. Sahadeb Sarkar & Subhasis Mishra & Sanjeev Kumar, 2022. "Development of a Comprehensive Multi-Factor Method for Comparing Batting Performances in One-Day International Cricket," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 11(1), pages 92-108, January.
    18. Wei Yin & Zhixiao Ye & Wasi Ul Hassan Shah, 2023. "Indices Development for Player’s Performance Evaluation through the Super-SBM Approach in Each Department for All Three Formats of Cricket," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    19. Ananda Bandulasiri & Tom Brown & Indika Wickramasinghe, 2016. "Factors affecting the result of matches in the one day format of cricket," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 26(4), pages 21-32.
    20. Sahadeb Sarkar & Anirban Banerjee, 2016. "Measuring batting consistency and comparing batting greats in test cricket: innovative applications of statistical tools," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 43(4), pages 365-400, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:13:y:2017:i:1:p:25-36:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.